贝壳：Cost reduction and new business profitability improvement to drive earnings recovery-20260210

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Ke Holdings (Beike), indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][16]. Core Insights - Ke Holdings is expected to experience a revenue decline of 28.5% YoY in 4Q25, with anticipated revenue of RMB22.2 billion and a non-GAAP net profit of RMB427 million, resulting in a net profit margin of 1.9% [1]. - The company is well-positioned to expand its market share in the home transaction business due to its strong technological capabilities, superior service quality, and established agent cooperation network [1]. - For FY26E, the report forecasts a recovery in earnings driven by cost optimization measures and profitability improvements in new businesses, projecting a non-GAAP net profit of RMB7.0 billion, which represents a 42% YoY growth [1]. - The target price has been raised by 5% to US$21.80, reflecting a positive long-term operating cash flow outlook [1][3]. Financial Summary - For FY23A, revenue is reported at RMB77.8 billion, with a YoY growth of 28.2%. The adjusted net profit is RMB9.8 billion, showing a significant growth of 244.7% [2]. - The revenue forecast for FY25E is RMB94.6 billion, with a slight YoY growth of 1.3%, while the adjusted net profit is expected to decline to RMB4.9 billion, a decrease of 31.5% [2]. - The report projects a revenue of RMB91.5 billion for FY26E, with an adjusted net profit of RMB7.0 billion, indicating a recovery and growth trajectory [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 52.2x for FY25E, which is expected to decrease to 29.4x in FY26E and further to 22.5x in FY27E, suggesting an improving valuation as earnings recover [2][14]. - The SOTP-based valuation for Beike Core is estimated at US$20.9 per ADS, with an additional US$0.9 per ADS for Shengdu, leading to a total valuation of US$21.80 per ADS [1][12].