供应端预期反复，新能源金属延续宽幅震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply-side expectations are fluctuating, and new energy metals will continue to experience wide fluctuations. In the short to medium term, due to the repeated supply-side expectations, new energy metals will maintain wide fluctuations. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, which may lead to a higher price center. The lithium ore production capacity is still on the rise, but the demand expectation is also increasing, and the expected surplus of supply and demand is narrowing, which will push up the price center [2]. - For industrial silicon, there is still long-term overcapacity pressure, and the silicon price will fluctuate. For polysilicon, due to the fluctuating policy expectations, the polysilicon price will experience wide fluctuations. For lithium carbonate, with weak supply and demand drivers, the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Price Information: As of February 9, the price of oxygenated 553 in Xinjiang was 8,700 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9,400 yuan/ton; the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8,950 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9,850 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory Information: As of last week, the domestic inventory was 422,850 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.8%; among them, the market inventory was 187,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%; the factory inventory was 235,850 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.8% [7]. - Production Information: In January, the industrial silicon output was 320,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.1%; the cumulative production in 2025 was 4.055 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.7% [7]. - Export Information: In December, the export volume of industrial silicon was 59,036 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.6% and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%; the cumulative export volume from January to December was 720,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% [7]. - Main Logic: On the supply side, the operation in the southwest region during the dry season continued to decline. Currently, Sichuan has basically stopped production, and the operation in Yunnan has dropped to a low level. In addition, large northwest factories implemented production cuts at the end of January, and the domestic industrial silicon supply in February is expected to further decrease, alleviating the short-term supply pressure. However, in the long term, the operation of northwest silicon factories is expected to resume, and the operation in the southwest region will also increase during the wet season, so there is still long-term overcapacity pressure. On the demand side, polysilicon has a large inventory consumption pressure, and some silicon material factories have further shut down for maintenance, resulting in a continuously weak demand for industrial silicon; organic silicon enterprises have cut production to support prices, and the demand for industrial silicon is also relatively weak; the demand for industrial silicon in the aluminum alloy industry remains stable. Overall, after the large factories cut production, the supply-demand balance in February is expected to improve. However, in the medium to long term, the silicon price is still under pressure, as the supply elasticity of industrial silicon is large and the demand is weak, and there is still overcapacity pressure in the industry [7]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the current market sentiment is fluctuating. It is believed that the silicon price will show a fluctuating trend [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Price Information: On February 9, the average transaction price of N-type dense material was 57.5 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 0 yuan/kg [7]. - Warehouse Receipt Information: On February 9, the latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 8,610 lots, with a month-on-month increase of 0 lots [7]. - Export and Import Information: In December 2025, the total export volume of polysilicon in China was about 1,670.41 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was about 25,115.57 tons. In December 2025, the total import volume of polysilicon in China was about 1,872.81 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was about 19,051.01 tons [7][8]. - Main Logic: From the perspective of supply fundamentals, with the arrival of the dry season, the polysilicon production capacity in the southwest region has gradually decreased, and the current polysilicon output is at a relatively low level. It is expected that the polysilicon output will continue to contract. On the demand side, the demand for polysilicon remains weak, the silicon wafer production schedule is at a relatively low level, the polysilicon inventory is continuously accumulating, and the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is also rising simultaneously. However, considering that the Ministry of Finance announced on its official website that the photovoltaic export tax rebate will be cancelled starting from April 1, 2026, there may be a rush to export photovoltaic products in the first quarter in China, which will boost the short-term demand for polysilicon. Overall, the weak demand is dragging down the polysilicon price trend, but considering that the polysilicon supply is still expected to continue to contract, the polysilicon supply and demand are expected to tighten, and the price may show a wide fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to the relevant policies of polysilicon [8]. - Outlook: The weak demand is dragging down the polysilicon price trend, but considering that the polysilicon supply is still contracting, it is believed that the polysilicon price may show a wide fluctuating trend [8]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - Price and Position Information: On February 9, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3.07% to 137,000 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the total position of the lithium carbonate contracts increased by 8,687 lots to 645,262 lots [9]. - Spot Price and Warehouse Receipt Information: On February 9, the morning spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 136,700 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1,700 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the evening market price was 136,700 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 4,200 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the morning price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 134,000 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2,000 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the evening price was 136,700 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 4,200 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The warehouse receipts on that day increased by 820 lots to 34,597 lots [9]. - Main Logic: Currently, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, but there is a marginal weakening, and sentiment has a greater impact on the price. In January, the performance of new energy vehicles was poor due to the overdraft phenomenon, but there was also maintenance on the supply side, and the overall supply and demand remained in a tight balance. In February, the supply and demand sides may continue to face production cuts due to maintenance by some enterprises. After the price correction, the downstream is actively stocking up. Before the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo mine, it is expected that the tight balance will still be maintained in February, and the social inventory will not significantly accumulate. However, close attention should be paid to the negative feedback of energy storage and the vehicle end on the price increase, and the rhythm of supply expansion should also be noted, as there is an expectation of concentrated supply expansion in the second quarter [9]. - Outlook: In the short term, the supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon No specific content provided in the given text. 3.2.2 Polysilicon No specific content provided in the given text. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate No specific content provided in the given text. 3.3商品指数 - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index was 2,374.89, an increase of 0.70%; the commodity 20 index was 2,710.51, an increase of 0.96%; the industrial products index was 2,278.80, an increase of 0.21%; the PPI commodity index was 1,404.35, an increase of 0.58% [47]. - New Energy Commodity Index: On February 9, 2026, the new energy commodity index was 503.20, with a daily increase of 1.85%, a decrease of 3.38% in the past 5 days, a decrease of 8.04% in the past month, and a decrease of 1.27% since the beginning of the year [48].