春节临近，板块品种多震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, most varieties in the agricultural sector are volatile. Oils and fats, protein meals, corn, natural rubber, cotton, and pulp are expected to fluctuate, while live pigs and sugar prices are likely to be weak. Synthetic rubber is expected to be moderately strong, and logs are expected to be range - bound [1]. - The overall supply of oilseeds such as soybeans and rapeseeds is relatively loose, and palm oil is about to enter the destocking trend. The demand side should focus on biodiesel policies and export performance in the producing areas. Recently, the market has been intertwined with long and short factors, and oils and fats are expected to fluctuate [4]. - Near the Spring Festival, downstream stocking is basically completed, trading is light, and the protein meal market is expected to fluctuate [6]. - Near the Spring Festival, the trading of corn is light, and the price is expected to be weak. After the festival, attention should be paid to the rhythm of traders' delivery, restocking, and inventory building [8][9]. - The supply of live pigs is loose, and the price is weak. The downward cycle has not ended, but the industry's destocking process is blocked and needs further observation [10]. - The fundamentals of natural rubber are relatively weak, but the expectation is good. The market is expected to fluctuate due to increased capital attention [14]. - The improvement of the supply - demand pattern of butadiene is relatively certain, but it needs adjustment in the short term and is expected to be moderately strong in the medium term [17]. - Before the Spring Festival, cotton is expected to fluctuate. After the festival, the terminal demand is expected to pick up, and the price center of gravity is expected to rise [17]. - In the medium and long term, the sugar price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. The new sugar - making season is expected to have an oversupply in the global sugar market, and the price has a downward driving force [18]. - The pulp futures are still weak, and the spot market is difficult to improve before the Spring Festival. After the festival, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and it is expected to fluctuate [19]. - The double - gum paper market is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, and the market trading is expected to stagnate in mid - to late February. After the festival, attention should be paid to the resumption of work and production of downstream printing factories [21]. - The log market is expected to be range - bound. In the short term, there is no new driving force, and the fundamentals remain loose [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: Oils and fats fluctuate narrowly. - Information: As of the end of the 6th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1974,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 19,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.60%. - Logic: Near the Spring Festival, the market sentiment is wait - and - see, and the oils and fats fluctuate narrowly. The expectation of destocking of palm oil is weakening, and the soybean market is affected by trade negotiations and bio - diesel policies [4]. - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - Viewpoint: The trading of double - meals is light, and the market fluctuates. - Logic: The market's expectation of China's increased procurement of US soybeans has cooled, and the supply peak of Brazilian soybeans is coming. In China, the oil mills are shutting down, and the logistics is stagnating. After the festival, the cost of imported soybeans is expected to decrease, and the spot and basis of soybean meal are expected to be weak [6]. - Outlook: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - Viewpoint: Near the Spring Festival, the trading of corn is light, and the price is expected to be weak. - Information: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract is 2274 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. - Logic: Near the Spring Festival, the downstream stocking is coming to an end, and the trading is inactive. After the festival, the selling pressure may increase, and the demand is lackluster. The supply of substitute grains and imported grains may suppress the price of domestic corn [8][9]. - Outlook: The price is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - Viewpoint: The supply of live pigs is loose, and the price is weak. - Price: On February 9, the national average price of live pigs was 11.71 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. The closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 11,565 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. - Logic: In the short term, the slaughter is increasing. In the medium term, the supply will be excessive until April 2026. In the long term, the industry's destocking process is blocked. The demand is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be weak [10]. - Outlook: The price is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: Before the Spring Festival, it is mainly range - bound. - Information: The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 15,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials in Thailand's Hoh Ai market has increased. - Logic: The rubber price has increased slightly, maintaining a range - bound trend. The fundamentals are weak, but the expectation is good. The supply is abundant, and the demand is supported by tire enterprises' procurement, but the inventory is increasing rapidly [12][14]. - Outlook: The market is expected to fluctuate. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: Pay attention to the short - term support strength. - Information: The spot price of butadiene rubber has decreased, and the domestic spot price of butadiene has increased. - Logic: The BR market first rose and then fell, and the support at the 12,500 yuan/ton mark is strong. The supply of butadiene is expected to be tight in the first half of 2026, and the market sentiment affects the price, but the downside space is limited [16][17]. - Outlook: The market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium term. 3.1.7 Cotton - Viewpoint: It is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. - Information: On February 6, the closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 05 contract was 14,580 yuan/ton. - Logic: The processing and inspection of new cotton are coming to an end, and the demand is improving, but the textile factories are shutting down for the holiday. The market risk preference is decreasing, and the macro - sentiment is weakening. After the festival, the demand is expected to pick up [17]. - Outlook: The market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium and long term. 3.1.8 Sugar - Viewpoint: The sugar production in Brazil has entered the end, and the sugar price is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium and long term. - Information: On February 9, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 05 contract was 5261 yuan/ton. As of the first half of January in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar production in central and southern Brazil was 40.236 million tons, an increase of 345,000 tons year - on - year. - Logic: In the medium and long term, the sugar price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. The global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the new sugar - making season, and the supply of major producing countries is expected to increase [18]. - Outlook: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.9 Pulp - Viewpoint: The pulp futures are still weak, and the spot market is difficult to improve before the Spring Festival. - Information: The price of coniferous pulp in Shandong has not changed. - Logic: Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the terminal and downstream are on holiday. After the festival, the demand is expected to recover seasonally. The bottom support of the pulp futures has weakened, and the downside space is limited [19]. - Outlook: The market is expected to fluctuate. 3.1.10 Double - Gum Paper - Viewpoint: The double - gum paper market fluctuates narrowly at a low level. - Logic: Before the Spring Festival, the trading is expected to decrease, and the market is stable. In February, the number of enterprises choosing to shut down for maintenance may increase, and the market trading is expected to stagnate in mid - to late February. After the festival, attention should be paid to the resumption of work and production of downstream printing factories [21]. - Outlook: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.11 Logs - Viewpoint: The log market is weak. - Logic: The log market is affected by the suspension of delivery warehouses, but the fundamentals are loose. The valuation has increased, and the supply has decreased in the short term, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the medium term [23]. - Outlook: The market is expected to be range - bound. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring There is no specific data monitoring content provided in the report. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on February 9, 2026. - Characteristic Index: The commodity index increased by 0.70% to 2374.89, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.96% to 2710.51, the industrial products index increased by 0.21% to 2278.80, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.58% to 1404.35 [183]. - Sector Index: The agricultural product index on February 9, 2026 was 927.90, with a daily decline of 0.19%, a 5 - day decline of 0.56%, a 1 - month decline of 1.67%, and a year - to - date decline of 0.55% [184].