贵属策略:位震荡中修复,配置资回补撑价格
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2026-02-10 01:50
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious metals have a corrective rebound after previous sharp fluctuations, with gold returning near the key integer level and silver rising synchronously but with greater elasticity. The short - term trading logic shifts from a unilateral trend to a structural re - balance under high volatility, and the replenishment of allocation and hedging funds supports the price. Macroeconomic and policy uncertainties remain the core background [1] - Gold stabilizes and recovers in high - level oscillations, and the medium - term long - position logic is not broken. It is likely to maintain high - level wide - range oscillations before macro data forms a consistent direction, and is supported by official gold purchases and the US dollar credit logic in the medium term [2] - Silver's volatility significantly increases, following gold's recovery but at a faster pace. It is likely to oscillate strongly in the short term but needs to be wary of technical pull - backs after a rapid rise, and its medium - term trend depends on the overall precious metal allocation demand and macro - risk pricing [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - View: Gold stabilizes and recovers in high - level oscillations, and the medium - term long - position logic is not broken [2] - Logic: After the previous de - leveraging and emotional stampede, gold gets allocation orders near the key price level. Official demand continues, and its high tolerance for price fluctuations compresses the downside space. Overseas, the market continues to trade around US employment and inflation data, and discussions on the Fed's policy path and independence repeatedly disturb real interest rates and the US dollar, which is beneficial to gold's defensive and allocation attributes [2] - Outlook: Before macro data forms a consistent direction, gold is more likely to maintain high - level wide - range oscillations. Attention should be paid to the support strength of allocation funds during the correction phase, and it is still supported by official gold purchases and the US dollar credit logic in the medium term [2] 3.2 Silver - View: Silver's volatility significantly increases, following gold's recovery but at a faster pace [3] - Logic: After a rapid decline, silver has a large rebound, showing stronger trading attributes. The inventory structure and fund behavior dominate the short - term trend. During the overall sentiment recovery phase of precious metals, silver has a leading elasticity but is less stable than gold. In a high - volatility environment, the inflow and outflow of funds have a more direct impact on the silver price [3] - Outlook: Silver is likely to oscillate strongly in the short term following gold, but it needs to be wary of technical pull - backs after a rapid rise. Its medium - term trend depends on the overall precious metal allocation demand and macro - risk pricing [3] 3.3 Commodity Index - Special Index: The commodity index is 2374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index is 2710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial products index is 2278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index is 1404.35, up 0.58% [44] - Precious Metals Index: On February 9, 2026, the precious metals index is 4200.39, with a daily increase of 3.78%, a 5 - day increase of 0.91%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 9.84% [45]