银河期货烧碱周报-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, there were rumors that the second - phase roasting furnaces of a large alumina plant in North China were shut down for maintenance, leading to inventory backlog and suspension of front - end feeding, to be verified next week [4]. - The supply and demand of caustic soda are both weak. The supply - side device load decreased slightly, with the chlor - alkali operating load rate dropping 0.81 percentage points to 90.63%, and the caustic soda output in terms of 100% purity being 881,400 tons, a 0.89% decrease from the previous week. Although some device overhauls led to a slight reduction in supply, the overall supply was still sufficient [4]. - The demand side showed a differentiated operation, with rigid demand coming to an end. The operating capacity of the main downstream alumina dropped to 75.42% (a 2.34 - percentage - point decrease), weakening demand support; although the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased to 83.78%, due to the approaching Spring Festival, downstream stocking was basically over, and the overall willingness to receive goods became weaker [4]. - Inventory was depleted, and losses widened. The pressure on the upstream was relieved. The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda factories in Shandong dropped to 109,800 tons, a significant 8.88% decrease from the previous week. Traders maintained low inventories due to risk - aversion sentiment, and the social inventory changed little. Profits were severely in the red, and the willingness to raise prices was strong. The average loss of chlor - alkali enterprises (including self - owned power plants) in Shandong expanded to 91.17 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by over 60% [4]. - It is expected that the prices of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda will remain stable next week, with little room for significant fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work progress of downstream enterprises after the festival and changes in alumina procurement prices [4]. - For trading strategies, the caustic soda is expected to be weak in the single - side trading; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Comprehensive Analysis: The supply and demand of caustic soda are both weak. Supply decreased slightly due to some device overhauls, but overall it was still sufficient. Demand was differentiated, with alumina demand weakening and viscose staple fiber demand tapering off. Inventory decreased, and losses widened. It is expected that prices will remain stable next week [4]. - Trading Strategies: Single - side: Caustic soda is weak; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [5] Core Logic Analysis - Alumina in Shandong: The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large alumina plants in Shandong was at a high level, and the price continued to decline. From January 4th to January 24th, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong was successively reduced by 15 yuan/ton each time, and the current delivery volume is 13,812 tons [7][10]. - Alumina Operation: This week, domestic overhauls and production cuts were frequent, and the operating capacity fluctuated. As of Friday, the national alumina built - in capacity was 114.62 million tons, and the operating capacity was 94.25 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons from the previous week. Next week, two alumina enterprises in Guangxi will resume production, and two in Shanxi will enter the overhaul state. It is expected that the national operating level will fluctuate around 94 million tons. The spot trading atmosphere is expected to be lighter, and the spot price will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [17]. - Caustic Soda Operation: This week, the average utilization rate of the production capacity of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above in China was 87.8%, a 0.1% increase from the previous week. Regionally, the chlor - alkali loads in Central and South China increased, while those in North, East, and Southwest China slightly decreased, and those in Northwest and Northeast China were basically stable. The weekly production capacity utilization rate in Shandong was 90.1%, a 1% decrease from the previous week [19]. Weekly Data Tracking - Inventory: As of February 5, 2026, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 471,400 tons (wet tons), a 9.41% decrease from the previous week and a 2.97% increase from the same period last year. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 27.47%, a 2.56% decrease from the previous week. The storage capacity ratios in North, East, and South China decreased, while those in Northwest, Central, Northeast, and Southwest China increased [11]. - Price: The prices of 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and their regional and variety spreads are presented in the form of charts, reflecting the price trends from 2020 - 2026 [30][33][35]. - Profit: The profit charts of caustic soda and chlor - alkali in Shandong and Jiangsu from 2022 - 2026 are provided, showing the profit trends and the prices of liquid chlorine [43]. - Production: The production capacity utilization rate, production volume, and provincial - level production volume of caustic soda from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [52][55]. - Consumption: The demand, weekly consumption (including exports) of caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [57][58]. - Alumina: The production, operating capacity, operating rate, and planned new production capacity of alumina from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts and tables. In the first quarter of 2026, there will be more new alumina production capacity, especially in Guangxi, which will drive the demand for 50% and flake caustic soda in Shandong and other places [61][66]. - Viscose Staple Fiber and Printing and Dyeing: The factory - level inventory and weekly operating rate of viscose staple fiber from 2019 - 2026, and the operating rates of printing and dyeing in East China, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [69][70][72]. - Export: The export volume, FOB price in North China, and export profit of caustic soda from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [74][75].