格林期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260210

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The nomination of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as Fed chair by US President Trump was just a trigger for the precious metals market slump. The real reason was the large number of profit - taking positions due to the previous continuous rally in the market. The latest employment and inflation - expectation data in the US are conducive to promoting interest - rate cuts. The Iran geopolitical risk is continuously fermenting, and gold and silver have not yet formed a new trend direction. Investors are advised to control positions and prevent risks due to the short - term violent fluctuations of precious metals [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - COMEX gold futures rose 2.10% to $5084.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 8.00% to $83.05 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract rose 1% to 1127 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract rose 5.24% to 20934 yuan per kilogram [1] 3.2 Important Information - As of February 9, the global largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, had a holding of 1079.66 tons, an increase of 3.43 tons from the previous trading day. The global largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, had a holding of 16191.09 tons, unchanged from the previous day [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 17.7%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 82.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut by April is 32.4%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 63.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 4%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 50.4% [1] - On February 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and the daily price limit range for newly - listed contracts of copper and other futures. For the gold AU2605 contract, the daily price limit range was adjusted to 17%, the hedging position trading margin ratio to 18%, and the general position trading margin ratio to 19%. For the silver AG2702 contract, the daily price limit range was adjusted to 20%, the hedging position trading margin ratio to 21%, and the general position trading margin ratio to 22%. Starting from the settlement on February 12, 2026, for the listed gold futures contracts, the daily price limit range was adjusted to 20%, the hedging position trading margin ratio to 21%, and the general position trading margin ratio to 22%. For the listed silver futures contracts, the daily price limit range was adjusted to 25%, the hedging position trading margin ratio to 26%, and the general position trading margin ratio to 27% [1] - The US Maritime Administration advised US ships to stay away from Iranian waters [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair triggered a slump in the precious metals market. The market had a large number of profit - taking positions due to the previous rally, and the nomination led to a chain reaction of profit - taking and market stampede. The latest employment and inflation - expectation data in the US are conducive to interest - rate cuts. On February 9, the US dollar index fell 0.78% to 96.85. The Iran geopolitical risk is continuously fermenting, and COMEX gold fluctuated slightly above $5000 per ounce, while COMEX silver rose significantly and closed above $83 per ounce. Gold and silver have not yet formed a new trend direction [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to the short - term violent fluctuations of precious metals, investors are advised to control positions and prevent risks [2]