格林期货早盘提示：国债-20260210

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: The rating for the macro and financial - treasury bond sector is "oscillating" [1] Group 2 - Core view of the report: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line. The new order index and business activity indices in construction and service industries also declined. The Ministry of Finance will keep the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure at a necessary level in 2026, and the central bank governor said there is room for RRR and interest rate cuts this year. The stock market rose on Monday, while the main contracts of treasury bond futures also increased overall. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short - term [1] Group 3 Summary of "Market Review" - On Monday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly opened lower, rose slightly in the morning session and then declined, fluctuated narrowly in the afternoon, and rose near the close. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.14%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.08%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.04% [1] Summary of "Important Information" - In the open market, the central bank conducted 113 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with 75 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 38 billion yuan on the day. In the money market, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained flat compared with the previous trading day, with the weighted average of DR001 at 1.27% and DR007 at 1.58%. In the cash bond market, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day, with the 2 - year yield down 0.20 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year down 0.19 BP to 1.55%, the 10 - year up 0.12 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year down 0.30 BP to 2.25% [1] Summary of "Market Logic" - The economic data in January showed a decline in market demand. The government will maintain necessary fiscal levels, and the central bank has room for RRR and interest rate cuts. The stock market rose on Monday, and the treasury bond futures main contracts also increased. Treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term [1] Summary of "Trading Strategy" - Traders should conduct band operations [2]