中辉有色观点-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish (★) [1] - Silver: Neutral (No recommendation) [1] - Copper: Bullish (★) [1] - Zinc: Bearish (★) [1] - Lead: Bearish (★) [1] - Tin: Bullish (★) [1] - Aluminum: Bearish (★) [1] - Nickel: Bearish (★) [1] - Industrial Silicon: Neutral (Wide - range fluctuations) [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish (★) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish (★) [1] 2. Core Views - Gold is recommended for long - term strategic allocation due to factors such as lower US employment and inflation expectations, a weakened US dollar index, and continuous gold purchases by central banks. However, short - term fluctuations need attention [1][3]. - Silver is not recommended for participation in the short term because of crowded trading and short - term market adjustments, although there is a long - term supply - demand gap [1]. - Copper is recommended for long - term holding. In the short term, with the approaching Spring Festival, investors are advised to take profits and hold cash due to high inventory and weak demand [1][7]. - Zinc is under pressure in the short term. With the approaching Spring Festival, demand weakens and inventory accumulates. It is advisable to reduce positions and wait for more macro - level guidance [1][11]. - Lead is under pressure as both supply and demand decline in the spot market, leading to inventory accumulation [1]. - Tin shows a short - term rebound under pressure, with a supply - demand balance of both supply and demand [1]. - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure due to low - cost alumina, inventory accumulation, and weak downstream demand [1][14]. - Nickel's price rebound is under pressure because of the digestion of supply contraction expectations, high inventory, and weak consumption [1][17]. - Industrial silicon shows wide - range fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, the market trading is light, and it is recommended to hold no positions during the festival [1]. - Polysilicon is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. - Lithium carbonate shows a rebound. With inventory reduction and production decline, it maintains a stable and oscillating rhythm [1][20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Gold - Core view: Stable and recommended for long - term strategic allocation [1]. - Main logic: Lower US employment and inflation expectations, a weakened US dollar index, continuous purchase of gold by central banks (China's central bank has been buying for 15 consecutive months), and long - term uncertainties in the geopolitical situation [1][3]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the support level around 1060, and continue to focus on volatility reduction [4]. Silver - Core view: Not recommended for participation [1]. - Main logic: Crowded multi - and short - position trading, short - term market adjustments, although there has been a supply - demand gap for 5 consecutive years, the short - term risk - reward ratio is not suitable [1]. Copper - Core view: Long - term holding [1]. - Main logic: The weakening of the US dollar index, high - level copper inventories globally, and weak demand in the traditional off - season as the Spring Festival approaches [1][6][7]. - Strategy: In the short term, take profits and hold cash during the Spring Festival. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [100000, 105000] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [12800, 13500] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - Core view: Under pressure [1]. - Main logic: Cooling speculative enthusiasm, weakening demand as the Spring Festival approaches, and inventory accumulation [1][10][11]. - Strategy: In the short term, reduce positions and control risks, and wait for more macro - level guidance. In the long term, consider buying on dips. The range for Shanghai zinc is [24000, 25000] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [3300, 3400] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - Core view: Rebound under pressure [1]. - Main logic: Low - cost alumina, inventory accumulation, and a decline in downstream operating rates [1][12][14]. - Strategy: In the short term, take profits and wait and see, and pay attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [22000 - 24500] [14]. Nickel - Core view: Rebound under pressure [1]. - Main logic: The digestion of supply contraction expectations in Indonesia, high domestic inventory, and weak consumption, as well as an increase in downstream stainless steel inventory [1][15][17]. - Strategy: Take profits and wait and see, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range is [120000 - 145000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Core view: Rebound [1]. - Main logic: Four - week consecutive inventory reduction, production decline, and following the trend of the non - ferrous metals sector [1][19][20]. - Strategy: After stabilization, lightly build long positions in the range of [135000 - 145000] [21].