格林大华期货早盘提示:尿素-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoint - The short - term urea price will oscillate within the range and tend to be strong, with the reference range of the 05 contract being 1740 - 1840. It is recommended to wait and see [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 rose by 12 yuan to 1788 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area rose by 30 yuan to 1790 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, the long positions increased by 8,530 lots to 261,000 lots, and the short positions increased by 10,680 lots to 276,000 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 211,100 tons, unchanged from the previous working day and an increase of 16,300 tons compared with the same period last year. The current operating rate is 89.66%, a 2.65% increase compared with 87.01% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 918,500 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.79%. The sample inventory at urea ports is 134,000 tons, unchanged month - on - month [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 41.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%, and the operating rate of melamine is 66.4%, a month - on - month increase of 2.8% [1] - Tendering: India RCF issued a urea import tender, with an intention of 1.5 million tons (700,000 on the east coast and 800,000 on the west coast). The tender will be opened on February 18, with an effective period until February 28 and the latest shipping date of March 31 [1] - Import and Export in December 2025: Urea imports were 35.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 82.11%; the import average price was 2,963.69 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 52.11%. Urea exports were 278,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53.75%; the export average price was 398.27 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 56.64% [1] - Oil Price: Due to concerns about the uncertainty of the US - Iran relationship and the potential supply risk remaining unresolved, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract rose 0.81 US dollars/barrel to 64.36 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.27%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 04 contract rose 0.99 US dollars/barrel to 69.04 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.45%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2604 contract rose 0.3 to 466 yuan/barrel, and rose 9.2 to 475.2 yuan/barrel in the night session [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The urea enterprise inventory continued to decline slightly last week, and the factory transactions improved over the weekend. The lowest ex - factory price of mainstream urea factories yesterday was 1720 - 1750 yuan/ton. The new Indian tender is beneficial to the international market, so the short - term urea price will oscillate within the range and tend to be strong [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [1]