国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20260210

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report of Guotai Junan Futures on February 10, 2026, focusing on green finance and new energy, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - Nickel: Affected by pre - holiday capital outflows, the medium - term contradiction lies in Indonesia [2][4] - Stainless steel: Frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has moved up [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: The supply - demand pattern is tight, and the downside space is limited [2][11] - Industrial silicon: Inventory has accumulated, and attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [2][15] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the post - holiday spot transactions [2][16] Summary by Commodity Nickel - Fundamental data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 134,520 yuan, with various changes compared to previous periods. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 417,105 lots, showing a significant decline. The price of 1 imported nickel was 134,600 yuan [4] - Macro and industry news: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses, and there are plans to adjust nickel ore production targets. There are also issues such as potential fines for illegal occupation of forest land by some mines, and the investigation of monopoly behavior in the port of IMIP Park [4][5][7] - Trend strength: 0, indicating a neutral trend [10] Stainless steel - Fundamental data: The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,735 yuan, and the trading volume was 202,243 lots, showing a downward trend. The prices of various stainless steel products in the market also had different changes [4] - Trend strength: 0, indicating a neutral trend [10] Lithium carbonate - Fundamental data: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 137,000 yuan, and there were changes in trading volume, open interest, and other indicators compared to previous periods. The prices of raw materials and lithium salts in the industrial chain also showed different fluctuations [12] - Macro and industry news: Beijing has launched an automobile trade - in subsidy plan, and Ningxia's cumulative external power transmission has exceeded 900 billion kWh [13][14] - Trend strength: 0, indicating a neutral trend [14] Industrial silicon - Fundamental data: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,450 yuan/ton, and the industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 56.2 million tons, showing an upward trend [16] - Macro and industry news: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026 will decline compared to 2025 and will return to an upward trend after 2027 [16][18] - Trend strength: 0, indicating a neutral trend [18] Polysilicon - Fundamental data: The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 49,370 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 34.1 million tons, showing an increase [16] - Trend strength: 0, indicating a neutral trend [18]