国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260210

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to have an oscillating rebound, while silver is predicted to decline from its high level [2][6]. - The decline of the US dollar supports the price of copper [2][10]. - Zinc is expected to trade within a range [2][13]. - Due to the losses in secondary lead production, attention should be paid to the lower support levels of lead [2][16]. - Tin is undergoing technical correction [2][19]. - It is recommended to hold a light position in aluminum before the holiday; alumina is expected to rebound from the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Platinum is in an oscillating consolidation phase, and palladium is trading within a box range [2][26][27]. - Nickel is affected by the exit of funds before the holiday, and the medium - term contradiction lies in Indonesia; in February, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in stainless steel, and the cost support center is moving up [2][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The prices of gold and silver showed significant increases. For example, the daily increase of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 3.29%, and that of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 10.24%. The trading volumes of both decreased compared to the previous day [5]. - Inventory: The inventories of gold and silver in Shanghai and Comex decreased to varying degrees. For example, the inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 31,354 kg [5]. - News: Before the release of the important non - farm payroll report, the White House gave a "pre - warning", indicating that employment growth may be lower than expected [5]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The prices of Shanghai Copper and London Copper increased. The daily increase of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 1.74%. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper decreased, while that of London Copper also decreased [10]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 3,044 tons, and that of London Copper increased by 1,025 tons [10]. - News: The Fed may not quickly shrink its balance sheet; Alphabet raised 20 billion US dollars through US dollar bonds and planned to issue 100 - year sterling bonds; the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association considered including "copper concentrate" in the national reserve; Glencore suspended major investment in a Canadian smelter; Anglo American's copper production in Q4 2025 decreased by 14% year - on - year; Capstone Copper will resume full - scale production at a copper - gold mine in Chile [10][12]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The prices of Shanghai Zinc and London Zinc increased. The daily increase of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 0.47%. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc decreased, while that of London Zinc increased [13]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased by 176 tons, and that of London Zinc decreased by 675 tons [13]. - News: The Fed may not quickly shrink its balance sheet; before the release of the important non - farm payroll report, the White House gave a "pre - warning" about lower - than - expected employment growth [14]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The prices of Shanghai Lead and London Lead increased. The daily increase of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 0.45%. The trading volumes of both decreased [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Lead increased by 4,968 tons, and that of London Lead decreased by 100 tons [16]. - News: The Fed may not quickly shrink its balance sheet; Alphabet raised 20 billion US dollars through US dollar bonds and planned to issue 100 - year sterling bonds [17]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The prices of Shanghai Tin and London Tin increased significantly. The daily increase of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 6.61%. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin decreased, and that of London Tin also decreased [20]. - Inventory: The inventories of Shanghai Tin and London Tin decreased. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 379 tons, and that of London Tin decreased by 55 tons [20]. - News: The decline of US Treasury bonds widened; the memory price soared by up to 90% compared to Q4 2025; Tesla's Tao Lin said there is no specific date for FSD to be launched in China; Wang Yi will attend the first senior officials' meeting of APEC in 2026 [20][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different degrees of change. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased. The trading volumes of aluminum and alumina decreased, while that of cast aluminum alloy increased [23]. - Inventory: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased, the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the inventories of alumina and cast aluminum alloy also changed [23]. - News: The Fed may reach an agreement with the US Treasury to clarify the balance sheet scale and adjust the bond - holding structure; the market expects the US core CPI to rebound in January [24]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The prices of platinum and palladium increased. The daily increase of platinum futures 2606 was 7.72%, and that of palladium futures 2606 was 6.74%. The trading volumes of both decreased [26]. - Inventory: The inventory of NYMEX platinum decreased, and the inventory of NYMEX palladium remained unchanged [26]. - News: US ships are advised to stay away from Iranian waters; the White House's Hasset predicted a decline in employment; the US Commerce Secretary was involved in a scandal; the EU proposed to include third - country ports in the sanctions against Russia; the UK government's communication director resigned; Alphabet planned to raise about 15 billion US dollars through bond issuance; OpenAI's Altman said ChatGPT's monthly growth rate exceeded 10% [29]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The prices of nickel and stainless steel increased. The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased by 2,680, and that of the stainless steel main contract increased by 65. The trading volumes of both decreased [30]. - Industry News: The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses; China implemented export license management for some steel products; the Indonesian government planned to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore; the planned nickel ore production in Indonesia in 2026 was significantly reduced; some Indonesian mines faced potential fines for illegal land use; the Indonesian government would adjust the nickel production quota according to industry demand; a nickel - carrying ship sank; the Indonesian government approved the mining work plan and budget for 2026; a Swiss company planned to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala; a Chinese company in Indonesia failed to submit an investment report [30][31][33].