天然橡胶日度策略报告-20260210

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - During the week before the Spring Festival holiday, the rubber futures price fluctuated sharply near the previous high due to the concentrated position adjustment of long - term funds in the metal sector and the systemic adjustment of commodities. The economic data showed weakness, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts increased. The overseas rubber - producing areas entered the seasonal production - reduction season, with strong cost support. The current supply of rubber in the producing areas is stable, the raw material price is stable but slightly stronger, the downstream is in the seasonal off - season, the terminal demand is weak, the finished product inventory is increasing, and the natural rubber spot inventory continues the seasonal accumulation. The medium - and long - term supply - demand surplus pattern is expected to gradually improve as the output peaks. [2] - For trading, it is recommended to wait and see for the single - side operation of rubber, avoid chasing the rise at high positions. The support and pressure levels for the RU and NR contracts are given. [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Rubber Variety View Summary - For rubber, the recommended strategy is to buy on dips, with the main logic being the continuous small accumulation of domestic spot inventory, stable overseas supply, firm spot price, and the boost of macro - sentiment. The support range is 15,500 - 15,800, the pressure range is 16,300 - 16,500, and the market outlook is expected to fluctuate upward. [10] - For 20 - number rubber, the strategy is also to buy on dips. The dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory inflection point, but the Thai rubber glue price is firm, the output in the fourth quarter has declined, and there is still support below. The support range is 12,700 - 12,800, the pressure range is 13,420 - 13,805, and the market is expected to recover from the bottom. [10] 2. Futures Market Review a. Futures Market Review - The closing price of the rubber main - continuous contract is 16,245, with a daily increase of 0.84% (135 points), a trading volume of 197,424, and an open interest of 150,270. [10] - The closing price of the 20 - number rubber main - continuous contract is 13,150, with a daily increase of 0.61% (80 points), a trading volume of 46,432, and an open interest of 48,669. [10] - The closing price of the Singapore TSR20 main - continuous contract is 188, with a daily increase of 0.05% (0 points), a trading volume of 22, and an open interest of 20,386. [10] b. Futures Market Warehouse Receipt Situation - The latest warehouse receipt volume of 20 - number rubber is 51,004, with a year - on - year change of - 16.36%. The warehouse receipts have rebounded from a low level recently, and the market's expectation of inventory accumulation has resurfaced. [16] - The latest warehouse receipt volume of rubber is 112,570, with a year - on - year change of - 38.34%. The warehouse receipts were significantly cancelled again today, the futures inventory decreased sharply year - on - year, the delivery risk of the futures contract increased, which supported the RU futures price. [16] 3. Spot Market Trend - The spot price of natural rubber is 16,083 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 109 and a year - on - year change of - 427. [20] - The price of Yunnan glue is 14,200 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year change of - 1,800. [20] - The price of Thai Haad Yai glue is 59 Thai baht/kg, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year change of - 8. [20] - The price of Thai Haad Yai cup - lump rubber is 54 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month change of 1 and a year - on - year change of - 7. [20] - The price of Thai 20 - number standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 1,940 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 10 and a year - on - year change of - 110. [20] 4. Basis and Spread Situation - The basis of the RU main contract is 3, with a month - on - month change of 103 and a year - on - year change of 783. [25] - The basis of the NR main contract is 1,750, with a month - on - month change of 85 and a year - on - year change of 265. [25] - The non - standard basis of Thai mixed rubber - RU is - 945, with a month - on - month change of - 30 and a year - on - year change of 55. [25] - The non - standard basis of SVR3L - RU is 220, with a month - on - month change of - 5 and a year - on - year change of 210. [25] - The cross - variety spread of RU - NR is 3,095, with a month - on - month change of 65 and a year - on - year change of 520. [25] - The spread between light and dark - colored rubber (whole milk - Thai mixed) is 715, with a month - on - month change of 225 and a year - on - year change of 55. [25] 5. Inter - month Spread Situation - For rubber, the 5 - 9 spread is 95, with a month - on - month change of - 10 and a year - on - year change of 245. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. [27] - For 20 - number rubber, the 3 - 4 spread is - 50, with a month - on - month change of - 5 and a year - on - year change of - 160. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. [27] 6. Industrial Supply, Demand and Inventory Situation - As of February 1, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China is 128.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9 million tons, an increase of 0.7%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber is 85.3 million tons, an increase of 0.7%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber is 42.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. [2] - The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas is 59.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 million tons, an increase of 1.23%. The bonded area inventory is 9.76 million tons, an increase of 3.34%; the general trade inventory is 49.41 million tons, an increase of 0.82%. [2] 7. Option - related Data - No specific data analysis content provided, only the figure names such as the trading volume and open interest of natural rubber options, the put - call ratio, the 60 - day historical volatility of rubber options, and the weighted implied volatility of rubber options are mentioned.