生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260210

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of sugar remains abundant, with a likely downward trend in price. For the Zhengzhou sugar main contract 05, consider short - selling on rebounds [3]. - The pulp market is affected by the downstream off - season. Although the cost of warehouse receipts has increased, the pulp futures are under short - term pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. - The cost support for double - offset paper has weakened, and the spot price is relatively stable. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with the basis, and it is advisable to try short - selling in the short term [5]. - The domestic cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in the 05 contract [6]. - The apple futures price may continue to fluctuate in a high - level range, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [7]. - For the jujube 2605 contract, it is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points, and for long positions, consider buying protective put options. Cautious investors can hold a reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part - Plate Strategy Recommendation - Fresh Fruit Futures - Apple 2605: Reduce long positions. The supply side still has support, but the overall commodity sentiment is volatile recently, and it may show a volatile trend in the short term. Support range: 8800 - 8900, pressure range: 11000 - 11500 [16]. - Jujube 2605: Buy on dips in the short term. The expected production reduction may be gradually reflected in the distant months, and the spot inventory is starting to peak and decline. Support range: 8700 - 9000, pressure range: 9500 - 9800 [16]. - Soft Commodity Futures - Sugar 2605: Short - sell on rebounds. The global sugar supply is still in surplus, and the domestic sugar supply is in the peak season, with overall sufficient supply. Support range: 5070 - 5100, pressure range: 5300 - 5320 [16]. - Pulp 2605: Allocate long positions lightly. The downstream finished paper is in the off - season, and there is a lack of new supply - side利多 recently. However, the US dollar quotation remains stable, and the cost of warehouse receipts may support the short - term price. Support range: 5200 - 5300, pressure range: 5450 - 5500 [16]. - Double - offset Paper 2605: Operate within a range. The spot market is stable, but demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. Support range: 4000 - 4100, pressure range: 4250 - 4300 [16]. - Cotton 2605: Reduce long positions. The long - term positive expectations still exist, and the medium - term support remains unchanged. However, the external market price is in a downward trend, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. The short - term futures price may fluctuate. Support range: 13500 - 13600, pressure range: 15400 - 15500 [16]. 3.2 Second Part - Market News Changes - Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 5, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 5.6351 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 375,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 554,900 tons [17]. - Spot Market: The price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in Shandong is stable. The Spring Festival stocking is basically over, and the price will remain stable before the Spring Festival. The mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruits in Qixia is 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per catty. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage trading is gradually decreasing. The mainstream price of 70 and above bagged Fuji in Luochuan is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty [17][18]. - Jujube Market: As of February 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,888 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.84%. Due to the scattered acquisition structure in the 2025 production season and the cautious market outlook for the new season after the Spring Festival, holders are more inclined to sell actively before the Spring Festival to reduce inventory pressure [20]. - Sugar Market: In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, as of the first half of January, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 345,000 tons. As of the week of February 3, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 210,289 contracts, showing strong bearish sentiment in the market [22]. - Pulp Market: Affected by the decline in futures prices and weakening demand for key resale products, the Chinese pulp market continues to weaken. The price of resale BSK has fallen, and the spot price of imported NBSK has also declined. However, the prices of Canadian and Nordic NBSK remain stable [26]. - Double - offset Paper Market: The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed. The start - up load rate was 57.43%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points, and the growth rate also narrowed [27]. - Cotton Market: As of the end of January, the industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 1.001 million tons, an increase of 17,200 tons from the previous month. The intended cotton - planting area in 2026 is 46.479 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 827,000 mu, a decrease of 1.7%. It is estimated that the total cotton output will be 7.275 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 452,000 tons, a decrease of 5.8% [28]. 3.3 Third Part - Market Review - Futures Market Review - Apple 2605: Closing price of 9517, a daily decrease of 18, a daily decline rate of 0.19%. - Jujube 2605: Closing price of 8725, a daily increase of 30, a daily increase rate of 0.35%. - Sugar 2605: Closing price of 5261, a daily increase of 33, a daily increase rate of 0.63%. - Pulp 2605: Closing price of 5200, a daily decrease of 34, a daily decline rate of 0.65%. - Cotton 2605: Closing price of 14580, no daily change [29]. - Spot Market Review - Apple: Spot price of 4.45 yuan per catty, no month - on - month change, a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan. - Jujube: Spot price of 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan. - Sugar: Spot price of 5310 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 640 yuan. - Pulp: Spot price of 5300 yuan (Shandong Yinxing), a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1400 yuan. - Double - offset Paper: Spot price of 4350 yuan (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin), no month - on - month change, a year - on - year decrease of 600 yuan. - Cotton: Spot price of 15967 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 58 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1150 yuan [33]. 3.4 Fourth Part - Basis Situation No specific text summary information provided, only figure references such as apple 5 - month basis, jujube main contract basis, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part - Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread: Current value of 1280, a month - on - month decrease of 38, a year - on - year increase of 1909, expected to be volatile and strong, recommended strategy: buy on dips. - Jujube 5 - 9 spread: Current value of - 240, a month - on - month decrease of 15, a year - on - year increase of 140, recommended strategy: wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread: Current value of - 13, a month - on - month decrease of 2, a year - on - year decrease of 133, expected to be volatile, recommended strategy: wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread: Current value of - 125, a month - on - month decrease of 5, a year - on - year increase of 40, expected to be volatile and weak, recommended strategy: short - sell on rallies [54]. 3.6 Sixth Part - Futures Positioning Situation No specific text summary information provided, only figure references for the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, etc. of each variety. 3.7 Seventh Part - Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - Jujube: 3350 warehouse receipts, no month - on - month change, a year - on - year decrease of 722. - Sugar: 14461 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month increase of 87, a year - on - year decrease of 9667. - Pulp: 146447 warehouse receipts, no month - on - month change, a year - on - year decrease of 193040. - Cotton: 10580 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month increase of 5, a year - on - year increase of 3815 [87]. 3.8 Eighth Part - Option - related Data No specific text summary information provided, only figure references for option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, etc. of apple, sugar, and cotton.