有色金属日度策略-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector has significantly adjusted and then recovered, with differentiated trends. After the adjustment pressure is fully released, it is advisable to go long on dips based on the fundamentals [11]. - This week, due to the brief shutdown of the US government, non - farm payrolls and CPI will be released in the same week, and the combination of "weak employment + strong inflation" should be watched out for. China will release January's social financing and inflation data, and a new round of negotiations between the US and Iran is planned [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - Macro Logic: Non - ferrous metals are generally oscillating with rebounds. With the approaching holiday, funds are leaving the market, but volatility remains. The market narrative has shifted from confidence in synchronous growth and abundant liquidity to uncertainties brought about by volatility, a weak labor market, and AI - driven disruptions. The Middle East situation has eased but may still fluctuate, and the US - Iran negotiations continue. The Fed may take up to a year to make decisions regarding its balance sheet [11]. - Investment Recommendations for Each Variety - Copper: It is expected to oscillate upward. Consider going long on dips, with a support range of 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton [12]. - Zinc: It is in a stage of adjustment. Consider going long on dips, with a support range of 23,800 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 25,000 - 25,500 yuan/ton [12]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to oscillate and consolidate; alumina may weaken; cast aluminum alloy will oscillate and consolidate. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and consider shorting alumina on rallies [13][14]. - Tin: It is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips, with a support range of 330,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 450,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton [13][14]. - Lead: It will oscillate and recover within a range. It is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 16,400 - 16,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton [15]. - Nickel: It is in a stage of adjustment. With a support range of 125,000 - 128,000 yuan and a pressure range of 13,800 - 140,000 yuan [15]. - Stainless Steel: It is in a stage of adjustment. Consider short - term shorting and long - term going long, with a support range of 12,800 - 13,000 and a pressure range of 13,800 - 14,000 [15]. 2. Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Futures Closing Prices and Changes - Copper closed at 101,840 yuan/ton, up 1.74%. - Zinc closed at 24,540 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. - Aluminum closed at 23,540 yuan/ton, up 0.97%. - Alumina closed at 2,868 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. - Tin closed at 384,180 yuan/ton, up 7.61%. - Lead closed at 16,585 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. - Nickel closed at 134,520 yuan/ton, up 2.03%. - Stainless steel closed at 13,735 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. - Cast aluminum alloy closed at 22,165 yuan/ton, up 0.98% [16]. 3. Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Most varieties in the non - ferrous metals sector are in a state where the main force is strongly short - biased. For example, platinum (PT2606), silver (AG2604), tin (SN2603, NI2603), copper (CU2603), alumina (AO2605), aluminum (AL2603), zinc (ZN2603), lead (PB2603), and industrial silicon (SI2605) all have a strong short - position of the main force. Gold (AU2604) has a strong long - position of the main force [18]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - Copper: The Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price was 101,780 yuan/ton, up 1.62%. - Zinc: The Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 0 zinc price was 24,650 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. - Aluminum: The Yangtze River Non - Ferrous aluminum spot average price was 23,390 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. - Alumina: The Antai Ke alumina national average price was 2,646 yuan/ton, with no change [19][20][21]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Multiple graphs are provided to show the inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel. For example, there are graphs on the exchange copper inventory changes, zinc inventory changes, and the comparison between the Shanghai aluminum inventory and aluminum price [23][25][27]. 6. Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Multiple graphs are provided for each variety to show the arbitrage - related indicators, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, zinc Shanghai - London ratio change, and the difference between Shanghai aluminum's continuous one and continuous three contracts [60][62][65]. 7. Non - ferrous Metals Options - Multiple graphs are provided for each variety to show the option - related indicators, such as the historical volatility and weighted implied volatility of copper options, and the historical volatility and weighted implied volatility of zinc options [80][81].