Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [6][7]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The valuation of domestic assets is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. The volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [9][10]. - The global trade - financial environment is complex. Gold is favored for its allocation and hedging value, but the recent sharp rise has led to high speculative sentiment. The market volatility of precious metals is expected to increase significantly, and long positions should be liquidated for observation [11][12]. - The supply - demand pattern of steel products is weak. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and the futures may continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - The coke and coking coal futures may continue to oscillate in the medium term. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [17]. - The ferro - alloy market has an overall surplus, but the cost has a certain bottom - support. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. - The negotiation between the US and Iran is complex, and geopolitical risks remain. The capital is still bullish on crude oil, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [20][21][22]. - The supply of fuel oil in Singapore is tightening, and the cost - end crude oil is rebounding, so the fuel oil price has room to rise. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [23][24]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins will shrink significantly, and pre - festival cautious operation is recommended [25][26]. - The synthetic rubber market may oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of logistics and infrastructure after the Lantern Festival and the inventory reduction rate of tire enterprises [27][28][29]. - The natural rubber market is in an oscillating trend. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, positions should be controlled [30][31]. - The PVC market may oscillate strongly. The key to price trends and inventory reduction lies in the post - Spring Festival demand recovery [32][33][34]. - The urea market may oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to Indian tenders, domestic policies, and post - festival demand recovery [35]. - The PX market may oscillate and adjust in the short term. Cautious participation is recommended, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and fundamentals [36][37]. - The PTA market may oscillate in the short term. It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in January and February. Cautious operation is recommended, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [38]. - The ethylene glycol market may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern in the short term. Cautious operation is recommended, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes [39][40]. - The short - fiber market mainly trades based on the cost - end logic before the Spring Festival. Cautious observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [41]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost - end trend. Cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance devices [42][43]. - The soda ash market is in a slack season, and cautious treatment is still required [44]. - The glass market is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [45][46][47]. - The caustic soda market has significant seasonal characteristics. Although the cost is expected to rise, the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, so cautious treatment is required [49][50]. - The pulp market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the Spring Festival due to weak support [51]. - The lithium carbonate market has strong support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may increase, and risk control should be noted [52][53]. - The copper price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival due to weakening market sentiment and fundamentals [54][55]. - The aluminum price may be under pressure as speculative funds leave the market [56][57][58]. - The zinc price will enter an adjustment period as market sentiment cools and zinc ingot inventory accumulates [59][60]. - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price may oscillate weakly [61][62]. - The tin price has support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may intensify due to the uncertainty of US policies, and risk control should be noted [63][64]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [65]. - For soybean meal, long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, observation is advisable after the price leaves the low - cost range [66][67]. - For palm oil, long - position opportunities after pullbacks can be considered [68][69]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [70][71][72]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Pre - festival observation is recommended [73][74][75]. - The sugar market is expected to be weak in the medium term [76][77][78]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term. Pre - festival observation is recommended, and long - position operations can be considered in batches after pullbacks [79][80]. - For live pigs, pre - festival observation is recommended due to the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival [80][81]. - For eggs, pre - festival temporary observation is recommended due to the high supply and the end of pre - festival stocking [82][83]. - The corn and corn starch market: Corn is expected to face supply pressure after the Spring Festival, and corn starch may follow the corn market. Cautious observation is recommended [84][85][86]. - The log market has weak future demand expectations, and attention should be paid to foreign quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [87][88][89]. Summary by Directory Pulp - The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5,200 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand stagnated, and the market lacked trading basis. The price is expected to have limited fluctuations before the Spring Festival [51]. Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day, the main carbonate lithium contract rose 3.55% to 137,000 yuan/ton. The supply is in a tight balance, the consumption end is improving, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has strong support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may increase [52][53]. Copper - The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,450 yuan/ton, up 0.93%. Due to weakening market sentiment and fundamentals, the copper price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [54][55]. Aluminum - The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,625 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,862 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The alumina is bearish, and the aluminum price may be under pressure as speculative funds leave the market [56][57][58]. Zinc - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,490 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. The zinc market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price will enter an adjustment period [59][60]. Lead - The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,665 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price may oscillate weakly [61][62]. Tin - The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 4.18% to 385,140 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is tight, the price has support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may intensify due to the uncertainty of US policies [63][64]. Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 0.91% to 134,820 yuan/ton. The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [65]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 0.33% to 2,729 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.07% to 8,114 yuan/ton. For soybean meal, long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, observation is advisable after the price leaves the low - cost range [66][67]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose. The market expects the inventory to decline in January. For palm oil, long - position opportunities after pullbacks can be considered [68][69]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed rose. For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [70][71][72]. Cotton - The previous trading day, the domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated. The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Pre - festival observation is recommended [73][74][75]. Sugar - The previous trading day, the Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly. The sugar market is expected to be weak in the medium term [76][77][78]. Apple - The previous trading day, the domestic apple futures oscillated. The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term. Pre - festival observation is recommended, and long - position operations can be considered in batches after pullbacks [79][80]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the main live - pig contract fell 0.69% to 11,565 yuan/ton. Pre - festival observation is recommended due to the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival [80][81]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the main egg contract rose 0.03% to 2,909 yuan/500 kg. Pre - festival temporary observation is recommended due to the high supply and the end of pre - festival stocking [82][83]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, the corn main contract fell 0.18% to 2,265 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract rose 0.28% to 2,538 yuan/ton. Corn is expected to face supply pressure after the Spring Festival, and corn starch may follow the corn market. Cautious observation is recommended [84][85][86]. Logs - The previous trading day, the main 2603 contract closed at 775.0 yuan/ton, down 1.90%. The log market has weak future demand expectations, and attention should be paid to foreign quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [87][88][89].
西南期货早间评论-20260210
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2026-02-10 02:37