供多需少，再平衡之路

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for liquefied petroleum gas is "oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the Asian LPG market will remain relatively loose. The Far - East FEI price is expected to oscillate at a low level within a certain range, and the domestic PG price is also expected to follow the range - bound oscillation. The market needs to improve downstream chemical profits to stimulate additional demand and achieve re - balance of the trade flow. Otherwise, the US propane inventory may break through the historical high at the end of 2026 [4][5][114] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Liquefied Petroleum Gas Market Review - In 2025, the liquefied petroleum gas market was greatly affected by unexpected macro and geopolitical events, with significantly amplified volatility and reduced weight of fundamental pricing. In different quarters, various events such as cold snaps, tariff wars, and regional conflicts had different impacts on the market price and trade flow [16][17][22] Trade Pattern Remains Unchanged, and Export Volume is Expected to Increase Steadily - US: In 2025, the US LPG production increased, mainly from associated gas and NGL. The export growth rate slowed down due to tariff disturbances and closed arbitrage windows. In 2026, with the expansion of terminal capacity, the export volume is expected to increase by about 7.3% [30][33][40] - Middle East: In 2025, the LPG export volume in the Middle East increased, mainly driven by Iran and Iraq. In 2026, the export volume is expected to increase by 3.5% due to the commissioning of gas fields and the high - base effect of crude oil production [50][51][55] Asian Chemical Demand Growth Slows Down - Southeast Asia: In 2025, the combustion demand in Southeast Asia, especially in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, increased. In 2026, India's import growth is expected to slow down, while Indonesia and the Philippines' combustion demand will maintain a stable growth rate [65][66][75] - PDH: In 2025, China's PDH capacity increased, but the growth rate slowed down. In 2026, the new effective capacity is relatively limited, and the industry's operating rate is expected to increase slightly, corresponding to a demand increment of about 115 tons [76][80][81] - Cracking Devices: In 2025, China's new cracking capacity squeezed out the old - fashioned devices in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. In 2026, the cracking devices in these regions are not expected to have further incremental demand for LPG. In China, the cracking demand for LPG is expected to decrease by about 50 tons due to tariff and economic factors [87][88][98] Supply - Demand Balance Summary - China: In 2026, China's LPG market is expected to see a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, with a slightly looser fundamental situation. The domestic production is expected to increase by 1.5% to 5420 tons, and the import volume is expected to increase by about 125 tons [100][108] - Global Trade Flow: There is a supply - demand mismatch in the global LPG trade flow. About 365 tons of supply needs to find new outlets. It is necessary to improve the economy of chemical demand to stimulate additional demand and achieve re - balance [110] Investment Recommendations - The Far - East FEI price is expected to oscillate at a low level within a certain range, and the domestic PG price is expected to oscillate within the range of 3700 - 4700 yuan/ton. Strategies such as C3/C4 price ratio, MB propane reverse - arbitrage, and expanding the spread between the US Gulf and the Far - East can be considered [5][114][115]