碳酸锂：弱现实与成本行博弈，盘面震荡整理成材，重心下移偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market will continue the pattern of oscillatory consolidation, and it is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see before the Spring Festival [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 137,000 yuan/ton, with trading volume dropping to 305,300 lots and open interest increasing to 344,000 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the long - short ratio of net positions increased month - on - month. The daily inventory of lithium carbonate on the GZFE increased by 820 lots to 34,597 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 135,500 yuan/ton, with an electric - industrial price difference of 3,500 yuan/ton. Currently, the Spring Festival stockpiling is almost over, most enterprises have a low psychological purchase price, and the market inquiry and transaction are relatively light. Before the festival, liquidity tightens, policy expectations diverge, and potential macro - level disturbances may amplify market fluctuations through the emotional channel, and capital risk - aversion suppresses speculative demand [1] Fundamentals Supply - Last week, raw material markets generally declined. The SMM total weekly operating rate was 47.29% (-2.21%), and the operating rates of all processes except lithium mica decreased. The SMM weekly total output was 20,744 tons (-825 tons) [2] Demand - Last week's data showed that the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory was destocked. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales by SMM rose to 55.6%, remaining at a relatively high level. Energy - storage cells performed strongly, with strong production and sales and low inventory [2] Inventory - SMM data showed that last week, the SMM four - location sample social inventory increased by 3.73% month - on - month to 43,050 tons, the sample weekly inventory decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, the total inventory days increased to 30 days, and the downstream inventory days rose to 11.8 days (a month - on - month increase of 9.26%), with passive inventory accumulation, structural differentiation, and poor transmission [2] Macro - Policy - On the demand side, multiple incentives such as subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and battery export tax rebates stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, and will optimize the domestic supply structure and raise the cost support center in the long term. In terms of industrial planning, the Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference form a coordinated positive effect, supporting long - term supply - demand balance. In the macro - environment, the central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [3]