光大期货能化商品日报-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to repeated geopolitical factors between the US and Iran and EU sanctions targeting third - country ports, which bring uncertainties to the supply side [1]. - Fuel oil prices are likely to oscillate. The low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore is under pressure in the short - term but may improve in March. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is strengthening. Both are affected by geopolitical situations and crude oil costs [3]. - Asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price follows the cost - side oil price but may be volatile after the US - Iran negotiation, so light positions are recommended before the Spring Festival [3]. - Polyester prices are expected to fluctuate. PX and PTA prices may follow the cost and weaken, while ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [3][5]. - Rubber prices are predicted to maintain an oscillating trend due to the weak supply - demand fundamentals and a slight increase in port inventory [5]. - Methanol prices are likely to have a narrow - range fluctuation. The decrease in Iranian shipments in February will support the price, but the slow destocking speed at ports and the approaching Spring Festival will limit the price movement [6]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate narrowly. With the end of downstream enterprise restocking and the approaching Spring Festival, the market trading activity will decline [6]. - PVC prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. Although the supply is high and domestic demand is slowing, the export tax - refund policy before April 1 will provide short - term support [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Monday, WTI March contract closed at $64.36/barrel, up $0.81 or 1.27%; Brent April contract closed at $69.04/barrel, up $0.99 or 1.45%; SC2604 closed at 475.2 yuan/barrel, up 9.2 yuan or 1.97%. OPEC's January oil production decreased by 60,000 barrels per day to 28.34 million barrels per day, with Nigeria having the largest decline. The EU plans to expand sanctions on Russia to ports in Georgia and Indonesia. The short - term oil price will oscillate due to geopolitical factors [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.5% at 2,794 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2604 closed down 1.22% at 3,248 yuan/ton. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the expected increase in arbitrage cargoes from the Western market in February will put pressure on the Singapore low - sulfur market. However, the inflow of arbitrage cargoes in March is expected to decrease. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is strengthening [3]. - Asphalt: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.98% at 3,334 yuan/ton. The supply is stable, and the port inventory of diluted asphalt has increased. The demand has basically ended before the Spring Festival. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price follows the cost - side oil price [3]. - Polyester: TA605 closed at 5,192 yuan/ton, up 0.5% on the previous day; EG2605 closed at 3,739 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. The PX futures main contract 605 closed at 7,290 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The polyester load is weakening, and the near - term performance is under pressure, while the far - month is expected to be strong [3][5]. - Rubber: On Monday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 165 yuan/ton to 16,245 yuan/ton, and the NR main contract rose 100 yuan/ton to 13,150 yuan/ton. The cost - side raw material prices are supported by stocking, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weak with a slight increase in port inventory [5]. - Methanol: On Monday, the Taicang spot price was 2,205 yuan/ton. The domestic supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the Iranian supply is low. The load of the Ningbo Fude MTO device will gradually increase, and there is rigid demand support. The decrease in Iranian shipments in February will support the price, but the destocking speed at ports will be slow [6]. - Polyolefins: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,530 - 6,750 yuan/ton. The upstream production is at a high level, and the downstream factories will gradually stop production. The downstream restocking is basically over, and the polyolefins will start to accumulate inventory, so there is pressure for the price to rise [6]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Monday, the price in the East China PVC market was stable, and the price in the South China market rose slightly. The domestic real - estate construction is slowing down before the Spring Festival, and the demand for pipes and profiles is decreasing. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the export policy will provide short - term support [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price, basis rate, price changes of spot and futures, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data for multiple energy - chemical products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc. [8] 3.3 Market News - On February 9, the US issued a new guide for merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, advising US - flagged ships to stay away from Iranian territorial waters and not to resist if boarded by the Iranian military [11]. - According to traders and shipping data, Russian oil tankers are increasingly listing Singapore as the official destination, but Singapore does not import Russian crude oil, and its offshore waters are often used for ship - to - ship transfers [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc., from 2022 to 2026 [13][15][17][19][21][24][26][28]. - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple products, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [31][36][37][38][40][41]. - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides the spread charts between different contracts for fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [43][45][48][51][53][55][57]. - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, BU/SC ratio, etc. [59][62][64]. - 4.5 Production Profits: The report shows the production profit charts for LLDPE, PP, PTA, and the cash - flow chart for ethylene - based ethylene glycol [64][66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market, has won multiple awards and provides risk management and investment strategies for many enterprises [70]. - Du Bingqin: Energy and Chemical Research Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain, has won many awards and is often interviewed by the media [71]. - Di Yilin: Rubber and Polyester Analyst of Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the research of rubber and polyester - related futures varieties, has won several awards and published views in many media [72]. - Peng Haibo: Methanol, Propylene, Pure Benzene, Polyolefin, and PVC Analyst of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in the energy - chemical spot - futures trading and CFA Level 3 certification [73].