USDA即将发布报告，南美产量成焦点

Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the strategy [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. As the USDA is about to release its monthly supply and demand report, the market is focusing on South American soybean production. With the pre - holiday trading being light, the market is in a wait - and - see mode and the futures market is oscillating [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9014.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 12 yuan and a change rate of - 0.13% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8114.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 12.00 yuan and a change rate of + 0.15% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9137.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 7.00 yuan and a change rate of - 0.08% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8950.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 60.00 yuan and a change rate of - 0.67%. The spot basis was P05 - 64.00, with a month - on - month change of - 48.00 yuan - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8400.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 0.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of + 0.00%. The spot basis was Y05 + 286.00, with a month - on - month change of - 12.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9890.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 0.00 yuan and a change rate of + 0.00%. The spot basis was OI05 + 753.00, with a month - on - month change of + 7.00 yuan [1] Market Information - As of February 9, the national imported soybean port inventory was 8.25918 million tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from the previous week - As of last Thursday, the harvested area of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop reached 16% of the expected area - As of last Thursday, the sown area of the 2026 second - season corn in central and southern Brazil reached 22% of the expected area - As of last Thursday, the harvested area of the 2025/26 first - season corn in central and southern Brazil reached 15% of the expected area - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was $553/ton, up $1/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was $561/ton, up $1/ton from the previous trading day - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) was $503/ton, up $8/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (April shipment) was $497/ton, up $8/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) was $454/ton, down $1/ton from the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotes for the Gulf of Mexico (April shipment), the US West Coast (April shipment), and Brazilian ports (April shipment) decreased by 9 cents/bushel, 9 cents/bushel, and 5 cents/bushel respectively from the previous trading day - As of the week of February 6, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 2480000 tons, the second - highest level in history. It increased by 190000 tons week - on - week, 730000 tons month - on - month, 2020000 tons year - on - year, and 1530000 tons compared with the average of the past three years. It is expected to drop to about 1.6 million tons during the Spring Festival holiday - As of February 4, the sowing of the 2025/26 Argentine soybean crop has been completed, but the crop growth and moisture conditions have significantly worsened. Currently, 75% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good, 8.6% less than a week ago; 59% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions, 5.6% less than a week ago. More than 40% of the early - sown soybeans are in the critical reproductive growth stage, suffering from severe water shortages. 16% of the late - sown soybeans have entered the reproductive growth stage, with water shortages causing flower abortion and even plant death in extreme cases. About 31% of the national soybean area is in the critical growth stage, and water stress is the core challenge [2]