黑色建材日报-20260210

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillation [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillation with a bearish bias [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillation [6] - Thermal Coal: Stable with a slight upward trend before the holiday, may face pressure after the holiday [7] Core Views - The overall contradiction in the steel market is not prominent, with poor building material demand, weak downstream procurement sentiment, and seasonal inventory accumulation slightly higher than last year, suppressing rebar prices. Plate demand is relatively stable, but high inventory restricts the price space of hot-rolled coils. Before the holiday, steel inventory continues to increase, and the supply-demand pressure increases slightly. Coupled with the weakening of raw material prices, steel prices will maintain an oscillating and weakening trend [1]. - The supply-demand contradiction of iron ore is intensifying. The global iron ore shipment has significantly declined, and the port inventory has continued to increase. As the steel mill replenishment is approaching the end, the support of raw material prices has weakened. If the port liquidity factors are removed, the port supply will form a great impact [3]. - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both weak. The coking coal price is stable with a slight downward trend, and the demand has significantly shrunk. The supply of coke is marginally relaxed, and the speculative demand has sharply decreased. It is expected that the prices will oscillate in the short term, following the cost fluctuations [5][6]. - Due to the shutdown of coal mines for the holiday, the supply of thermal coal has shrunk, and the downstream factories have also gradually closed for the holiday, resulting in a weak supply and demand situation. The import market is affected by supply, and the domestic coal price continues to rise slightly. It is expected that the price will be stable with a slight upward trend before the holiday, and may face pressure after the holiday [7]. Market Analysis Steel - Futures and spot: The steel futures market oscillated downward yesterday. In the spot market, the rebar inventory in Hangzhou over the weekend was 770,000 tons, and the rebar delivery was 16,000 tons. The inventory in the same period last year was 555,000 tons, and the delivery was 30,000 tons. According to Gangyin data, the building material inventory increased seasonally, and the coil inventory showed a trend of inventory accumulation [1]. - Supply and demand logic: Currently, the overall contradiction in the steel market is not prominent. The demand for building materials is poor, the downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and the seasonal inventory accumulation is slightly higher than last year, suppressing the rebar price. The demand for plates is relatively stable, but the high inventory restricts the price space of hot-rolled coils. Before the holiday, the steel inventory continues to increase, and the supply-demand pressure increases slightly. Coupled with the weakening of raw material prices, steel prices will maintain an oscillating and weakening trend. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment and the change of raw material prices [1]. Iron Ore - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price was weak yesterday. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port fluctuated slightly, and traders' quotes mostly followed the market. Steel mills' procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The global iron ore shipment decreased significantly this period, with a total shipment of 25.35 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.1%. The arrival volume at 45 ports continued to decline, with a total arrival volume of 23.61 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.0% [3]. - Supply and demand logic: In terms of supply, the non-mainstream shipment remained at a high level under high ore prices, and the global shipment volume decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output remained stable, and the iron ore consumption increased slightly month-on-month. The iron ore port inventory continued to increase. As the steel mill replenishment was approaching the end, the support of raw material prices weakened. Currently, the supply-demand contradiction of iron ore continues to deepen. If the port liquidity factors are removed, the port supply will form a great impact. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the change of iron ore inventory and the negotiation progress [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Futures and spot: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures oscillated yesterday. In terms of coking coal, the coking coal price has been stable with a slight downward trend recently, and individual coal varieties have been adjusted. As the holiday approaches, the downstream coking enterprises' replenishment has entered the final stage, and the demand has significantly shrunk. In terms of coke, the coking enterprises that were shut down due to environmental protection have gradually resumed production, and the coking enterprises' production enthusiasm has improved month-on-month. The supply of coke is marginally relaxed. Most steel mills have completed the winter storage replenishment, and the speculative demand for coke has sharply decreased [5]. - Supply and demand logic: In terms of coke, the supply has increased slightly recently. Most steel mills have completed the winter storage replenishment. As the holiday approaches, the coking plants adjust their production autonomously. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term, following the cost fluctuations. In terms of coking coal, the pig iron output of steel mills has increased, and the rigid demand for coking coal has maintained resilience. As the downstream replenishment is approaching the end, the speculative demand has shrunk. As the Spring Festival approaches, coal mines will gradually shut down for the holiday, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance will be suspended during the Spring Festival. The supply pressure of coking coal will be relieved. It is expected that the coal price will be stable with a narrow adjustment before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the resumption of domestic coal production after the holiday [6]. Thermal Coal - Futures and spot: In terms of production areas, more coal mines in the main production areas have taken holidays, mainly private mines, and most state-owned mines are still in normal production. The supply contraction is gradually increasing. At the same time, the demand for non-electric coal from downstream has also decreased, so the procurement has decreased. The prices of some coal mines are under pressure, and the shipments of some coal mines with high cost performance are relatively good, and the prices have increased slightly. Currently, more coal mines have taken holidays and entered the vacation mode, and the transactions are few. At the port, affected by the supply contraction at the pithead, the market arrival resources are tight. Coupled with the continuous inversion of port shipments, the prices are also rising continuously. In the import market, the sentiment is high. Affected by domestic and Indonesian shipments, the arrival resources are few, and the quotes are continuously firm [7]. - Supply and demand logic: Recently, due to the shutdown of coal mines for the holiday, the supply has shrunk, and the downstream factories have also gradually closed for the holiday, resulting in a weak supply and demand situation. The import market is affected by supply, and the domestic coal price continues to rise slightly. Recently, the RKAB of the leading Indonesian mine has been fully approved, and it is expected that the approval results of other mines will be announced one after another. The Indonesian supply is expected to recover. Overall, the price increase space before the holiday is limited, and it is expected to run stably with a slight upward trend. Attention should be paid to the fact that after the coal mine supply recovers after the holiday, coupled with the approaching end of the peak season, the coal price may face pressure [7]. Strategies Steel - Single-sided: Oscillation [2] - Inter-period: None [2] - Inter-variety: None [2] - Futures-spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Iron Ore - Single-sided: Oscillation with a bearish bias [4] - Inter-period: None [4] - Inter-variety: None [4] - Futures-spot: None [4] - Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal: Oscillation [6] - Coke: Oscillation [6] - Inter-period: None [6] - Inter-variety: None [6] - Futures-spot: None [6] - Options: None [6] Thermal Coal No specific strategy is mentioned in the report.