下游企业备货基本结束，铜价维持震荡格局

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: On hold [8] - Options: Sell put [8] Core View of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand continues to decline, and the price of precious metals remains volatile. The price of copper is expected to fluctuate between 97,800 yuan/ton and 106,600 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to hold heavy positions during the Spring Festival holiday [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures Market: On February 9, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 101,000 yuan/ton and closed at 101,840 yuan/ton, a 1.74% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 101,740 yuan/ton and closed at 102,450 yuan/ton, a 0.93% increase from the afternoon close [2]. - Spot Market: The spot price of electrolytic copper was between a discount of 30 yuan/ton and a premium of 100 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 35 yuan/ton, slightly narrowing from the previous day. The main contract of copper futures opened higher and then fluctuated lower, with an intraday range of 101,300 - 102,120 yuan/ton. The market trading sentiment was divided, with the sales sentiment index slightly rising and the purchasing sentiment slightly falling. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to weaken, so the spot premium is expected to decline [3]. Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: The US employment growth data is expected to slow down, but it does not mean a weakening of the economic growth momentum. The UK political situation has changed, with the resignation of the Prime Minister's chief of staff and public relations director, and calls for the Prime Minister to resign [4]. - Mining End: On February 6, US Virtus Minerals announced a $30 million acquisition of Congolese copper - cobalt miner Chemaf, with a plan to inject $7.5 billion in capital. The acquisition still needs the approval of the Congolese government and state - owned mining company Gecamines [5]. - Smelting and Import: Last week, LME copper inventories continued to rise to a nine - month high, SHFE copper inventories increased by 6.83% to a ten - month high, international copper inventories increased by 2,554 tons, and New York copper inventories continued to accumulate to a new high [5]. - Consumption: Jinchuan Tonggui successfully produced ultra - fine enameled copper rods with a diameter of 0.05 mm. Fujian Province announced 1570 key projects in 2026, including 11 copper - related projects [6]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 2,700 tons to 184,300 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 3,044 tons to 157,128 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 331,300 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous week [7].