印标提振市场情绪

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Indian tender boosts market sentiment, and it is expected that the urea price will remain firm before the Spring Festival. The supply increased in January as some gas-based and technical renovation enterprises resumed production. The agricultural demand for winter and greening fertilizers is ongoing, and manufacturers are gradually accepting orders for the Spring Festival. The off-season storage procurement is entering the later stage, with 10% of off-season storage goods to be released in February. The compound fertilizer production increased slightly, and the downstream fertilizer demand is approaching, but there is an expectation of a decline in production before the Spring Festival. The melamine production decreased due to temporary shutdowns. Overall, the urea inventory in factories decreased slightly, while the port inventory increased slightly. The international urea price rose due to the situation in Iran. The Indian RCF issued a urea import tender on February 7, with an intention to import 1.5 million tons. The current domestic export quota has no new news, and attention should be paid to export dynamics, off-season storage release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [1][2] - The strategy suggests a sideways trend for the unilateral position, a positive spread arbitrage for the UR05 - 09 contract when the price difference is low, and no operation for the cross - variety position [3] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On February 9, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1,788 yuan/ton (+12). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was reported at 1,790 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong at 1,790 yuan/ton (+10), and in Jiangsu at 1,800 yuan/ton (+10). The basis in Shandong was 2 yuan/ton (-2), in Henan was 2 yuan/ton (+18), and in Jiangsu was 12 yuan/ton (-2) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of February 9, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 89.14% (unchanged). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.85 million tons (-2.64), and the port sample inventory was 16.50 million tons (+2.10) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of February 9, 2026, the urea production profit was 225 yuan/ton (+10), and the export profit was 1,081 yuan/ton (+148) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The international urea price rose due to the situation in Iran. The Indian RCF issued a urea import tender on February 7, intending to import 1.5 million tons (700,000 tons on the east coast and 800,000 tons on the west coast), with the bid opening on February 18, valid until February 28, and the latest shipping date on March 31 [2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of February 9, 2026, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 41.79% (+0.45%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 57.95% (-8.50%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 8.82 days (+2.23) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of February 9, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.85 million tons (-2.64), and the port sample inventory was 16.50 million tons (+2.10) [1]