春节临近，PTA累库幅度加大

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for PX, PTA, PF, and PR is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost side fluctuates around the Iran situation, and the geopolitical situation needs attention. The PXN has significantly declined, and the floating price of PX remains weak. The Asian PX operating rate has reached a new high since late February 2019, increasing the supply expectation. The fundamentals are weak in the short - term, but the medium - term expectation is good [1] - The PTA spot basis is weak, and the near - term supply and demand tend to accumulate inventory due to the reduction in polyester production during the Spring Festival. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve [1] - The polyester operating rate is 78.2% (down 6.0% month - on - month), and the downstream is on holiday, with inventory starting to accumulate. The estimated average monthly loads for January and February are 88.5% and 80.5% respectively [2] - The PF production profit is 34 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the load is gradually declining. The sales of polyester yarn are average, and the load continues to decline [2] - The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 642 yuan/ton (down 37 yuan/ton month - on - month). The pre - holiday inventory reduction is smooth, and the processing fee rebounds [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show the TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber basis [7][8][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures show the PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][19] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures show the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [21][23] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the operating rates of PTA and PX in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the Asian PX operating rate [24][27][29] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show the weekly PTA social inventory, monthly PX social inventory, PTA and PX warehouse receipt inventories, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][37][38] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester operating rate, direct - spinning filament operating rate, polyester staple fiber operating rate, polyester bottle - chip operating rate, and related profit and inventory data [46][48][49] PF Detailed Data - Figures show the 1.4D physical and equity inventories, polyester staple fiber operating rate, factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber operating rate, raw - recycled spread, and the operating rate and production profit of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [68][74][77] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle - chip operating rate, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and month - to - month spreads [85][87][95]