液化石油气日报：市场驱动有限，地缘风险仍存-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the festival [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The market driving force is limited, and geopolitical risks still exist. Although the overseas supply has tightened marginally and the Saudi CP has increased in February, the PG futures market is relatively weak, and domestic spot prices generally declined yesterday. High raw material costs have suppressed the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, leading to negative demand feedback. The price inversion between etherified C4 and civil gas has also put additional pressure on the PG futures market. In addition, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery has disturbed the market, especially for the PG2603 contract, where the pressure of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts will be more obvious. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on the development of the Iranian situation. If the conflict escalates, it may lead to a significant tightening of domestic supplies, which is a potential upward risk factor for the market. However, if the situation eases or remains controllable, the LPG fundamentals are still expected to be oversupplied after the impact of the US cold wave subsides, and there is still resistance above the market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 9, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4350 - 4510; Northeast market, 3740 - 4150; North China market, 4230 - 4470; East China market, 4150 - 4570; Yangtze River market, 4640 - 4930; Northwest market, 4250 - 4400; South China market, 4780 - 4800 [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 637 US dollars/ton and 628 US dollars/ton respectively, up 10 US dollars/ton and 11 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4875 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan/ton, and butane was 4807 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in South China were 627 US dollars/ton and 618 US dollars/ton respectively, up 8 US dollars/ton and 9 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4799 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton, and butane was 4730 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the festival [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]