Hua Tai Qi Huo·2026-02-10 05:02Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The pre - holiday freight rate drive is weak, and the recent EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of shipping companies' price - holding measures in March after the holiday. The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and investors are advised to participate with caution. In normal years, shipping companies issue price - increase letters in March and April to stabilize prices. Before the Spring Festival, the overall drive is estimated to be bearish, and the short - selling direction has an advantage [4][5]. - For far - month contracts, the game over the resumption time is intense, and the volatility is expected to remain high. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. If it does not resume in the first half of 2026, the pressure on the capacity side is expected to be relatively controllable, and the freight rate may still reach a high level. Investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and shorting on EC2610 [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Futures Price - As of February 9, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 56,740.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 17,605.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1756.00, 1238.00, 1553.00, 1614.80, 1126.10, and 1425.50 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - On February 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1403 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 1801 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2530 US dollars/FEU. On February 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1657.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1155.66 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static Supply: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships have been delivered in 2026, with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU. 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 737,400 TEU (50 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small [2][3]. - Dynamic Supply: In the remaining three weeks of February, the average weekly capacity is 271,600 TEU, with the capacities in WEEK7/8/9 being 366,600/259,800/188,300 TEU respectively. In March, the average weekly capacity is 288,400 TEU, and in April, it is 274,700 TEU. There are 13 blank sailings in February, 7 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March, and 1 blank sailing and 4 TBNs in April [3]. 4. Supply Chain - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. COSCO management points out that there is still no clear schedule for the full resumption of the Red Sea. The Red Sea resumption needs to meet multiple conditions. Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route will implement structural adjustments through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal [6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaics by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on January 8, 2026, may disrupt the shipping rhythm of relevant industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be stronger than in normal years [4].