新能源及有色金属日报：长假临近淡季价格小幅波动-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: neutral [5] - Arbitrage: neutral [5] Core View of the Report - Actual consumption has entered the seasonal off - season, with a significant decline in downstream开工, but the seasonal performance is in line with previous years without additional negative impacts. The zinc price's absolute decline risk has been released, and the depth of the off - season correction may be limited. The long - term expectations for consumption and the macro - economy remain positive [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$21.56 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 24,660 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -35 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 120 yuan/ton to 24,640 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -55 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 24,610 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -85 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 9, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,630 yuan/ton and closed at 24,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 122,879 lots, and the position was 63,501 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,745 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,420 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of February 9, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 148,500 tons, a change of 14,500 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 106,925 tons, a change of -675 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The actual consumption has entered the seasonal off - season, and downstream开工 has significantly declined, but the seasonal performance is in line with previous years. In the mining sector, domestic mines and smelters have entered the production reduction and maintenance cycle, the procurement demand of smelters has declined, and the trading of imported ores is also scarce, with TC remaining stable. In the smelting sector, although the average daily output in February is expected to increase month - on - month, the actual output is likely to fall short of expectations. Some smelters are still facing losses despite the continuous strengthening of sulfuric acid prices, and the supply pressure is not large. Although the social inventory has entered the inventory accumulation cycle, the absolute value of inventory is not high. After the end of the expected trading by the Fed Chairman, the risk of a decline in the absolute zinc price has been released, and the depth of the off - season correction may be limited. It is advisable to avoid risks in the short term as the long holiday approaches, while the long - term expectations for consumption and the macro - economy remain positive [4] Strategy - Unilateral: neutral [5] - Arbitrage: neutral [5]