沪铜期货日报-20260210

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - In the short term, the copper price shows an obvious weak pattern, with bears taking the initiative. The market is volatile and significantly influenced by market sentiment, so caution is advised. Attention should be paid to the price trend in the spot market, the change in the basis between futures and spot prices, as well as the flow of major funds and changes in positions [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - On February 5, 2026, the main copper futures contract (CU.SHF) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a significant decline. The opening price was 104,000 yuan/ton, the highest price reached 104,700 yuan/ton, the lowest price dropped to 100,470 yuan/ton, and it closed at 100,980 yuan/ton, with a full - day decline of 3.76%. The trading volume was 285,586 lots, and the open interest was 182,336 lots [2]. 2. Spot Market Basis Analysis - On February 5, the average price of copper in the Chinese non - ferrous market was 101,170 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 101,260 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 101,180 yuan/ton. Based on the futures closing price of 100,980 yuan/ton and the spot average price of 101,170 yuan/ton on that day, the basis was - 190 yuan/ton, indicating a slight contango. This basis level may have changed compared to the previous trading day, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards the short - term trend of copper prices [3]. 3. Price Influencing Factors - Changes in the macro - economic environment may affect the demand expectation for copper, especially when precious metals are highly volatile, and market sentiment may spread to non - ferrous metals. - The change in global copper inventories should be noted. On February 4, the LME copper inventory was 178,650 tons, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory continues to increase. - Overseas technology assets fell significantly at night, and the market's concern about the AI bubble has increased, especially the possible change in the downstream demand side [4][5]. 4. Market Outlook - In the short term, the copper price is in a weak pattern, with bears in control. The market is volatile and affected by market sentiment. Caution should be exercised, and attention should be paid to the spot market price trend, the basis change, and the flow of major funds and position changes [6].