交易氛围冷淡，双硅小幅下跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. Supply has significantly contracted, providing price support, but high polysilicon inventory suppresses demand, and prices lack upward momentum. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory clearance, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [1][2] - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Supply has shrunk in February, supporting prices, but downstream cost pressure has led to weak demand. High inventory is being cleared slowly, suppressing price increases. Before April, the "rush to export" phenomenon has no obvious driving force, and the market is waiting for the supply - demand game [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,515 yuan/ton and closed at 8,450 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-0.82%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 277,011 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 8, 2026, was 16,737 lots, an increase of 564 lots from the previous day [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices fell slightly. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton), 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton (unchanged). Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1] - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 562,000 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous week [1] - The demand for industrial silicon continued to slump. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were no new orders, major polysilicon manufacturers cut production, supply shrank, and the market mainly focused on inventory reduction [1] - In February, large manufacturers had plans to cut production and shut down, and with the Spring Festival approaching, supply was expected to decrease [1] Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. Short - term range trading is recommended. There is no strategy for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated and rose. It opened at 49,500 yuan/ton and closed at 49,370 yuan/ton, a - 0.17% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 38,347 lots (37,934 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 4,706 lots [2] - Polysilicon spot prices rose slightly. According to SMM statistics, N - type material was 48.50 - 58.80 yuan/kg (+0.05 yuan/kg), and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg (unchanged) [3] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 341,000 tons, a 2.40% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer inventory was 28.32 GW, a 3.77% change. The weekly polysilicon production was 20,100 tons, a - 0.50% change, and silicon wafer production was 10.38 GW, a - 11.66% change [3] - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.18 yuan/piece (-0.05 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.48 yuan/piece (-0.03 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.28 yuan/piece (-0.03 yuan/piece) [3] - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W (unchanged), PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W (unchanged), Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.44 yuan/W (unchanged), Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.44 yuan/W (unchanged), Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.44 yuan/W (unchanged), and HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W (unchanged) [3][4] - In terms of components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W (unchanged), PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W (unchanged), N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W (unchanged), and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 yuan/W (unchanged) [4] Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Short - term range trading is recommended, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term. There is no strategy for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [5]