春节假期临近，碳酸锂高位震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current price of lithium carbonate fluctuates greatly. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, attention should be paid to position risks, and short - term trading should be mainly range - based. However, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain good. If the callback is too large, consider going long at low prices after the holiday [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 139,500 yuan/ton and closed at 137,000 yuan/ton, with a 3.55% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 305,321 lots, and the open interest was 344,071 lots (the previous day's open interest was 328,575 lots). The current basis was - 3,000 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 34,597 lots, a change of 820 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 131,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, a change of 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 128,000 - 136,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 1,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,965 US dollars/ton, a change of 15 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - The downstream material factories' inventory preparation for February is almost over. Most enterprises are turning to cautious waiting and watching, with a low psychological purchase price. Only a few manufacturers still maintain just - in - time purchases. Overall, the market inquiry and trading situation are a bit light [1]. Inventory - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory was 105,463 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,019 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory was 18,356 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 647 tons; the downstream inventory was 43,657 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,058 tons; other inventories were 43,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,430 tons [2]. - The demand market in February is in the traditional off - season. Although the medium - and long - term expectations for energy - storage demand remain optimistic, and there is "rush - export" support due to the adjustment of export tax - refund policies in the first quarter, the short - term purchase demand has slowed down [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading. If the callback is large, consider going long at low prices [3]. - Inter - period: None [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4]