Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [4][7] Group 2: Core Views - Brazilian new - season soybean supply pressure will suppress US soybean and domestic soybean meal prices, and with sufficient domestic supply, soybean meal prices will maintain a volatile trend. Future focus should be on US soybean procurement and Brazilian harvest [3] - Due to factors such as last - season's low corn imports, this - season's flood disasters in North China, and uncertain substitute grain auctions, corn supply is not loose. Corn prices are expected to oscillate, and future focus should be on spot purchases and sales, imports, and grain auctions [6] Group 3: Market News and Important Data for Soybean Meal Futures - The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2729 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2238 yuan/ton, a change of - 1 yuan/ton (- 0.04%) [1] Spot - In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3140 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was M05 + 411, a change of - 24; in Jiangsu, it was 3020 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was M05 + 291, a change of - 4; in Guangdong, it was 3000 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was M05 + 271, a change of - 4; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2400 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was RM05 + 162, a change of - 9 [1] Market Information - Brazilian farmers' 2025/26 soybean harvest progress reached 16.55%, higher than 9.84% in the same period last year; Brazilian 2025/26 soybean sales reached 33.9% of the expected output, down from 42.4% in the same period last year; in Argentina, 75% of the 2025/26 soybean crops were rated normal to good, 8.6% less than a week ago, and 59% of the planting areas had suitable to optimal moisture conditions, 5.6% less than a week ago [2] Group 4: Market News and Important Data for Corn Futures - The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2265 yuan/ton, a change of - 9 yuan/ton (- 0.40%); the corn starch 2603 contract was 2538 yuan/ton, a change of - 2 yuan/ton (- 0.08%) [4] Spot - In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was C03 + 75, a change of + 14; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was CS03 + 92, a change of + 2 [4] Market Information - The 2025 global grain output is expected to reach a record 3.023 billion tons, and the 2025/26 global grain inventory is expected to increase, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio rising to 31.8%, the highest since 2001 [4] Group 5: Market Analysis - In the soybean meal market, good weather in Brazil and expected high - yield new - season soybeans will suppress prices. With sufficient domestic supply, prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to US soybean procurement and Brazilian harvest [3] - In the corn market, due to factors like last - season's low imports, this - season's floods in North China, and uncertain substitute grain auctions, supply is not loose. Corn prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to spot purchases and sales, imports, and grain auctions [6] Group 6: Strategies - The strategy for both soybean meal and corn is neutral [4][7]
库存维持高位，豆粕延续震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2026-02-10 05:19