中泰期货晨会纪要-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market shows a rebound, with the Spring Festival market possibly continuing and a general rise expected; focus on the supplementary increase elasticity of weighted indexes [7] - Bond market sentiment improves, and the short - term rebound trend may continue, but the odds have significantly decreased [8] - Black commodities such as steel and iron ore are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and some high - position short orders of iron ore can be held in the medium term [11] - Double - coke prices may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival [13] - For iron alloys, manganese ore has strong short - term support, manganese silicon is in an oscillatory range, and silicon iron can be a long - allocation variety in the medium term [14] - For soda ash and glass, it is advisable to wait and see currently, focusing on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new capacity reaching production [15] - Copper prices are mainly in a wide - range oscillation in the short term, and fundamentals still support prices [16] - Carbonate lithium is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and opportunities for buying on dips after the correction can be concerned [17] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in an oscillatory state, with limited downward adjustment space for industrial silicon and polysilicon oscillating widely [18] - Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be in a high - level consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended [20] - Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate and rebound, and short - term trading in the low - position range before the Spring Festival is recommended [23] - For eggs, it is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see before the Spring Festival, and pay attention to the impact of chicken culling and molting after the festival on second - quarter contracts [25] - High - quality apple supplies may continue to be strong, and the futures price may run strongly [26] - Corn prices are expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and opportunities after the festival should be concerned [28] - Red dates are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [29] - The spot price of live pigs is lower than expected, and the near - month contract may decline further [30] - Crude oil prices are expected to have limited room for rebound and mainly oscillate [32] - Fuel oil prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices [33] - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly, and caution should be exercised to prevent correction risks [34] - Rubber is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and short - selling out - of - the - money put options or low - level accumulation can be considered [35] - Synthetic rubber may correct before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to opportunities for long - buying after the festival [36] - Methanol's fundamentals are slightly improved in the long term, but caution should be exercised due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [37] - Caustic soda can be considered from a long - biased perspective for the time being [38] - Asphalt will fluctuate with crude oil prices and is stronger than crude oil [39] - PVC may enter a correction stage later, and caution should be exercised [40] - The polyester chain is expected to follow crude oil prices to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and inter - variety arbitrage opportunities of long TA and short EG can be considered [42] - LPG prices will follow crude oil prices, and caution should be exercised in trading [43] - Pulp prices have limited downward space in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [44] - Log prices may decline under the expectation of supply exceeding demand after the festival, and attention should be paid to position control [44] - Urea futures should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [45] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Based on Fundamental Judgments - Trend Bearish: No specific varieties mentioned - Oscillating Bearish: Eggs, red dates, etc. [2][29] - Oscillating: Coke, PTA, etc. [4] - Oscillating Bullish: Caustic soda, glass, etc. [2][15] - Trend Bullish: No specific varieties mentioned 3.2 Based on Quantitative Indicators - Bearish: Sugar, coke, etc. [4] - Oscillating: Hot - rolled coils, eggs, etc. [4] - Bullish: Rebar, glass, etc. [4] 3.3 Macro Information - The first inspection in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period highlights the importance of technological self - reliance [10] - The stock exchanges optimize refinancing measures, focusing on high - quality listed companies and the technology innovation field [10] - The Chinese government makes a solemn statement on the Japanese prime minister's expected continued tenure [10] - Chongqing introduces a package of real - estate policies, including purchase subsidies [10] - The first global humanoid robot free - fighting league is launched [10] - Goldman Sachs reports that the global memory market will face a severe supply shortage from 2026 - 2027 [10] - The US plans to lower tariffs on Bangladeshi goods [10] - The US employment growth data is expected to slow down [10] - The Japanese prime minister plans to promote food tax cuts [10] 3.4 Macro Finance - Stock Index Futures: The Spring Festival market may continue, and there is a possibility of a general rise. Focus on the supplementary increase elasticity of weighted indexes [7] - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market sentiment improves, and the short - term rebound trend may continue, but the odds have significantly decreased [8] 3.5 Black Commodities - Screw and Ore: The trading rhythm is earlier this year. Steel inventories may be high after the festival. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the overall is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11] - Coking Coal and Coke: Double - coke prices may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival [13] - Ferroalloys: Manganese ore has strong short - term support, manganese silicon is in an oscillatory range, and silicon iron can be a long - allocation variety in the medium term [14] - Soda Ash and Glass: It is advisable to wait and see currently, focusing on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new capacity reaching production [15] 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Copper prices are mainly in a wide - range oscillation in the short term, and fundamentals still support prices [16] - Carbonate Lithium: It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and opportunities for buying on dips after the correction can be concerned [17] - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has limited downward adjustment space, and polysilicon oscillates widely [18] 3.7 Agricultural Products - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be in a high - level consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended [20] - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate and rebound, and short - term trading in the low - position range before the Spring Festival is recommended [23] - Eggs: It is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see before the Spring Festival, and pay attention to the impact of chicken culling and molting after the festival on second - quarter contracts [25] - Apples: High - quality apple supplies may continue to be strong, and the futures price may run strongly [26] - Corn: Corn prices are expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and opportunities after the festival should be concerned [28] - Red Dates: Red dates are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [29] - Live Pigs: The spot price of live pigs is lower than expected, and the near - month contract may decline further [30] 3.8 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Crude oil prices are expected to have limited room for rebound and mainly oscillate [32] - Fuel Oil: Fuel oil prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices [33] - Plastics: Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly, and caution should be exercised to prevent correction risks [34] - Rubber: Rubber is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and short - selling out - of - the - money put options or low - level accumulation can be considered [35] - Synthetic Rubber: Synthetic rubber may correct before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to opportunities for long - buying after the festival [36] - Methanol: Methanol's fundamentals are slightly improved in the long term, but caution should be exercised due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [37] - Caustic Soda: Caustic soda can be considered from a long - biased perspective for the time being [38] - Asphalt: Asphalt will fluctuate with crude oil prices and is stronger than crude oil [39] - PVC: PVC may enter a correction stage later, and caution should be exercised [40] - Polyester Chain: The polyester chain is expected to follow crude oil prices to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and inter - variety arbitrage opportunities of long TA and short EG can be considered [42] - LPG: LPG prices will follow crude oil prices, and caution should be exercised in trading [43] - Pulp: Pulp prices have limited downward space in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [44] - Logs: Log prices may decline under the expectation of supply exceeding demand after the festival, and attention should be paid to position control [44] - Urea: Urea futures should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [45]