贵金属价格反弹，市场等待美国非农数据

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - The market is waiting for the US non-farm payrolls data. The US employment growth data is expected to slow down, reflecting structural changes in the labor market. The market expects about 70,000 new jobs in the January non-farm payrolls report [1]. - Due to the emergence of market risk sentiment, the demand for gold investment may increase slightly. It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the Au2604 contract may fluctuate between 1100 yuan/gram and 1200 yuan/gram. Silver also shows a price recovery, and is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Ag2604 contract fluctuating between 20,000 yuan/kg and 21,000 yuan/kg [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The US employment growth data is expected to slow down, but this does not mean a weakening of economic growth momentum, but rather reflects structural changes in the labor market. The January non-farm payrolls report will be released on Wednesday, and the market expects about 70,000 new jobs. In addition, there was a "black swan" event in British politics, with several officials resigning and calls for the prime minister to step down [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 9, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 1104.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1125.94 yuan/gram, a change of 3.29% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1122.92 yuan/gram and closed at 1127.00 yuan/gram, a 0.09% increase from the afternoon closing price [2]. - On February 9, 2026, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 19,500.00 yuan/kg and closed at 20,873.00 yuan/kg, a change of 11.03% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 1,015,255 lots, and the open interest was 222,366 lots. In the night session, it opened at 20,500 yuan/kg and closed at 20,934 yuan/kg, a 0.29% increase from the afternoon closing price [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 9, 2026, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.202%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.723%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 2507 lots compared with the previous day, while the short positions changed by -3023 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 447,637 lots, a change of -23.27% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by -2303 lots and the short positions changed by -3455 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,971,263 lots, a change of -20.79% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The holdings of gold ETFs remained unchanged at 1,076.23 tons compared with the previous trading day. The holdings of silver ETFs decreased by 56 tons to 16,191 tons compared with the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On February 9, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was -22.59 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -655.69 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 53.94, a change of 6.22% from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 64.99, a change of 5.27% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On the previous trading day (February 9, 2026), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 47,556 kg, a change of -2.42% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 327,768 kg, a change of -0.53% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [7].