美日中消费演进启示录：下一站，风起服务消费

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes that China's consumption market potential lies not only in income growth but also in the effective release of consumption scenarios and time, with current policies addressing constraints in holiday optimization and work time regulations [3] - The evolution of consumption patterns in the U.S., Japan, and China shows a clear transition from "survival" to "experience" consumption, with China's service consumption significantly lower than that of developed countries [3][10] - The report identifies three core variables driving consumption changes: economic development stage, demographic shifts, and technological innovation, highlighting the structural transformation of consumer preferences in China [3][12] Group 2: Historical Consumption Evolution - The U.S. consumption history from the 1970s to the present reflects a shift from practical consumption during crises to brand-driven consumption, rational consumption, and experience-oriented consumption, culminating in technology-enabled and social consumption [10][11] - Japan's consumption evolution post-World War II transitioned from durable goods to quality and luxury consumption, followed by a rational return and the emergence of the "silver economy" due to aging demographics [18][20] - China's consumption history since 1978 has progressed from policy-driven practical consumption to brand consumption, and now to a blend of rational and self-indulgent consumption, with a notable rise of domestic brands [23] Group 3: Current Market Analysis - The A-share consumption sector has seen significant price adjustments, with stock prices declining by 40%-70% since 2021, indicating a potential for long-term investment opportunities as market sentiment begins to recover [3][6] - The report suggests that the consumption sector is currently undervalued, with low profitability and low holdings, presenting a significant expectation gap compared to the technology sector [3][6] - Service consumption is highlighted as a key area for alpha returns, with structural highlights in sectors such as cultural tourism, sports, emotional value, and beauty, indicating a potential for independent alpha performance among core companies in these fields [3][6]