蛋白数据日报-20260210

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The increase in U.S. soybean export expectations is positive for U.S. soybeans, but the decline in Brazilian soybean premiums partially offsets the upward impact on U.S. soybeans. The domestic market trend is weaker than the overseas market, with short - term expectations of range - bound trading. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums. The domestic supply - demand situation will marginally increase in the first quarter, and the spot basis is expected to weaken, with M3 - M5 favoring reverse arbitrage [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - On February 9th, the basis of the Dalian soybean meal main contract was 451, up 6; the basis of the Tianjin soybean meal main contract was 431, down 14; the basis of the Zhangjiagang 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) was 351, down 14; the basis of the Dongguan 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) was 331, down 14; the basis of the Zhanjiang 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) was 351, down 14; the basis of the Fangcheng 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) was 371; the basis of the Guangdong rapeseed meal spot was 174; N3 - 5 was 268 [4] 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation - Supply: Brazilian soybeans are in the harvesting period. As of January 31st, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 11.4%, compared with 6.6% last week and 8% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 11.8%. The pre - sale progress of new Brazilian crops is about 32%, slower than the same period last year. The USDA estimates that the Brazilian soybean production in the 25/26 season will reach 178 million tons, and the expected premium is facing selling pressure. As of January 28th, the sowing of Argentine 2025/26 soybeans was 99.5% complete, higher than 96.2% a week ago. Currently, 83.8% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good, slightly lower than the previous report. S&P Global's estimated data shows that the U.S. soybean planting area will increase by 3.2 million acres to 84.5 million acres [8] - Demand: The self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit has turned positive, the pig inventory and weight are at a high level, and the capacity reduction is not obvious. The egg - laying poultry farming profit has recovered, and the speed of culling hens has slowed down. In the short term, the demand for soybean meal is expected to provide support. Under the expectation of capacity adjustment and policy control, the long - term demand for soybean meal is expected to shrink, and the soybean meal stocking by enterprises has ended. This week, the trading volume has decreased, and the delivery performance is good [8] - Inventory: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are seasonally decreasing, but the current inventory is still at a high level; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8] 3.3 Spread and Other Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 60, and the spread of the main contract is 491. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium for 2025 shows different trends in different months, and the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the RMB is 6.9284 [12] 3.4 Inventory Data - The inventory data includes the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills, the soybean inventory at Chinese ports, the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises, and the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills, with historical data trends presented [12][13]