政府债周报（02/08）：下周新增债披露发行2566亿-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of local government bond issuance, including issuance forecasts, historical reviews, special bond issuance progress, regional issuance plans and actual issuance, and weighted average issuance terms [1][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Local Government Bond Issuance Forecast and Review - 2/9 - 2/15 Forecast: Local government bonds are expected to issue 32.2136 billion yuan, including 25.6607 billion yuan of new bonds (6.1593 billion yuan of new general bonds and 19.5014 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 6.5529 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (2.0884 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 4.4645 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5]. - 2/2 - 2/8 Review: A total of 57.9673 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued, including 20.9811 billion yuan of new bonds (7.5535 billion yuan of new general bonds and 13.4276 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 36.9861 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (4.4282 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 32.5579 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][6]. 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - Special Refinancing Bonds: As of February 8, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 200 billion yuan, and the fifth - round third - batch totaled 58.3985 billion yuan, with an additional 3.3291 billion yuan disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round third - batch are Jiangsu (8 billion yuan), Zhejiang (5.64 billion yuan), and Henan (4.8295 billion yuan) [7]. - Special New Special Bonds: As of February 8, 2026 special new special bonds totaled 6.9406 billion yuan, and since 2023, they totaled 255.4672 billion yuan. The top three regions in total disclosure are Jiangsu (24.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (13.7769 billion yuan), and Henan (13.2534 billion yuan). In 2026, the top three regions are Zhejiang (1.17 billion yuan), Guangdong (1.096 billion yuan), and Liaoning (0.8914 billion yuan) [7]. 3. Regional Issuance Plans and Actual Issuance - February 2026: The expected issuance is 85.89 billion yuan, an increase of 29.53 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The actual disclosed issuance is 90.18 billion yuan, with an expected repayment of 8.49 billion yuan and a net financing of 69.27 billion yuan. - March 2026: The expected issuance is 85.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.01 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The expected repayment is 16.62 billion yuan, and the net financing is 69.27 billion yuan [8]. 4. Weighted Average Issuance Term - This week, the weighted average issuance term of local government bonds is 16.12 years, and next week it is 15.48 years. As of February 6, the weighted average issuance term in February is 16.12 years, a 20.5% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. As of February 6, 2026, it is 17.04 years, a 0.8% decrease compared to the same period in 2025 [9].