瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic caustic soda supply - demand situation is bearish, but due to the low chlor - alkali profit and strong price - holding intention of enterprises, the further downward space of caustic soda prices may be limited. Attention should be paid to the future changes in liquid chlorine prices. The daily range of SH2603 is expected to be around 1900 - 2000 [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 1963 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 26; the main contract position is 132,674 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 21,432; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 17,052 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 2,384; the main contract trading volume is 447,987 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 138,115. The closing price of the January contract is 2,404 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 21; the closing price of the May contract is 2,163 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 34 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda is 588 yuan/ton in Shandong and 720 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, with no month - on - month change. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 1,838 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The basis is - 125 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 26 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt is 237.5 yuan/ton in Shandong and 220 yuan/ton in the Northwest, with no month - on - month change. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine is 50 yuan/ton in Shandong, with no month - on - month change, and 200 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,800 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change, and the spot price of alumina is 2,555 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3] 3.6 Industry News - From January 30 to February 5, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 87.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. From January 31 to February 6, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.71% month - on - month to 84.06%. From January 30 to February 5, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 88.43% month - on - month, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 22.74% month - on - month to 27.91%. As of February 5, SH2603 rose 3.26% to close at 1,963 yuan/ton. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 471,400 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 9.41% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January 30 to February 5, the chlor - alkali profit in Shandong was - 3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 121 yuan/ton [3]