Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-02-10 08:52Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Chinese New Year stocking ended, the sales volume in the sales areas declined due to weak inventory - holding willingness of traders and end - users. After the production volume data is expected to be released, the price will be adjusted. The production and sales data in major sugar - producing areas such as Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong are average, and the spot price is mainly stable. It is expected that the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures will fluctuate in a narrow range. With the approaching long holiday, risk control is necessary [2]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5,278 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17; the main contract position is 458,435 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 4,522; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 14,461, with no month - on - month change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 63,314 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,744; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 258, with no month - on - month change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3,957 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45; that of Thai sugar is 3,948 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,010 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 60; that of Thai sugar is 4,997 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 59. The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5,175 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20; in Guangxi Nanning is 5,330 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20; and in Guangxi Liuzhou is 5,350 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, with a year - on - year increase of 60; the planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, with a year - on - year increase of 5.24 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 88.48 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 79.54; the cumulative output of cane sugar in Yunnan is 39.23 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 34.75. The total sugar exports from Brazil in a month is 201.75 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 89.55. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,342 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 18; that of Thai sugar is 1,351 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 18. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 289 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 33; that of Thai sugar is 302 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 32. The monthly import volume of sugar is 58 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 14; the cumulative import volume is 492 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 58 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 359.04 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 228.74; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,342.1 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 296.4 [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.53%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31; that of at - the - money put options is 9.48%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.21. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 10.33%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.29; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.16%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to the export data released by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat, Brazil exported 762,400 tons of sugar in the first week of February, with an average daily export volume of 152,500 tons, a 67% increase compared to the average daily export volume of 91,300 tons in the whole of February last year. The total export volume in February last year was 1,825,100 tons. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose 0.24 cents, or 1.70%, to settle at 14.35 cents per pound on Monday due to the U.S. dollar index hitting a one - week low, which promoted short - covering operations in the sugar futures market. Brazil exported 2.0175 billion tons of sugar in January, a 2.09% year - on - year decrease. As of January 2026 in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season (April - March of the following year), the cumulative sugar exports from Brazil reached 30.23 billion tons, a 7.15% year - on - year decrease. The year - on - year sugar exports from Brazil in January changed from an increase to a decrease, and the supply pressure decreased slightly [2].