Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-02-10 08:51Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - For alumina, its fundamentals may be in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades when prices are low, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, its fundamentals may be in a situation of stable supply and improved demand, with seasonal accumulation of industrial inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and it is also recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades when prices are low, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, its fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly improved demand, with a relatively large supply and high industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades when prices are low, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,515.00 yuan/ton, down 25.00 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,835.00 yuan/ton, down 33.00 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 3,130.00 US dollars/ton, up 20.00 US dollars; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,120.00 yuan/ton, down 45.00 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai Aluminum was - 165.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of alumina was - 140.00 yuan/ton, down 32.00 yuan; the spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of cast aluminum alloy was - 35.00 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 184,786.00 lots, down 12,853.00 lots; the position of the alumina main contract was 321,540.00 lots, down 12,330.00 lots; the position of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 14,127.00 lots, up 319.00 lots [2]. - Inventories: LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 48,325.00 tons, unchanged; LME aluminum inventory was 488,975.00 tons, down 2,000.00 tons; Shanghai Aluminum inventory on the SHFE was 245,140.00 tons, up 28,369.00 tons; cast aluminum alloy inventory on the SHFE was 74,425.00 tons, up 357.00 tons [2]. - Other Indicators: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was - 52,631.00 lots, down 8,747.00 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.51, down 0.06; the registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy on the SHFE were 67,300.00 tons, down 1,235.00 tons [2]. Spot Market - Prices: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price was 23,290.00 yuan/ton, down 110.00 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,555.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,650.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price was 23,410.00 yuan/ton, down 160.00 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,530.00 yuan/ton, up 45.00 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 225.00 yuan/ton, down 85.00 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 280.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan; the Shanghai Material Trade aluminum premium and discount was - 200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME aluminum premium and discount was - 26.17 US dollars/ton, down 3.85 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - Supply - related: Alumina production was 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste in China was 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; the export volume of aluminum scrap and waste in China was 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons; the export volume of alumina was 21.00 million tons, up 4.00 million tons; the import volume of alumina was 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons [2]. - Demand - related: The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons; the WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 20.49 million tons, up 31.36 million tons [2]. - Other Indicators: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste was 18,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal waste was 17,700.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; the pre - baked anode price in the northwest region was 5,810.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national alumina start - up rate was 82.49%, down 1.00%; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 84.00%, down 1.00% [2]. Industry Situation - Supply - related: The import volume of primary aluminum was 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum was 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,540.20 million tons, up 4.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate was 98.79%, up 0.48% [2]. - Demand - related: The output of aluminum products was 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.40 million tons, down 1.60 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 54.00 million tons, down 3.00 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2]. - Other Indicators: The built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126.00 million tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2]. Downstream and Application - Automobile: The automobile production was 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2]. - Aluminum - related Products: The aluminum alloy production was 182.50 million tons, unchanged [2]. Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 38.55%, down 0.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 31.39%, down 0.05%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 18.36%, down 0.0203 [2]. - Ratio: The call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.84, up 0.0625 [2]. Industry News - President Xi Jinping inspected the National Information and Technology Innovation Park in Beijing, emphasizing the importance of scientific and technological self - reliance [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce held a symposium on automobile enterprises, planning to optimize the implementation of automobile trade - in programs and carry out pilot reforms in automobile circulation consumption in 2026 [2]. - Federal Reserve's Bostic said that people's confidence in the US dollar was being questioned [2]. - The US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset said that the US employment growth data was expected to slow down, and the January non - farm payroll report was expected to add about 70,000 jobs [2].