瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20260210

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - L2605 fluctuated strongly, closing at 6,775 yuan/ton. Last week, some devices such as Zhonghua Quanzhou, Zhongying Petrochemical, and Guangdong Petrochemical stopped, but the impact days were limited. With the previous maintenance devices restarting, PE production and capacity utilization increased slightly. As the Spring Festival approaches, the decline in the downstream operating rate of PE has widened, with the operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film both decreasing month - on - month. Factory and social inventories have entered the inventory accumulation stage for the Spring Festival, and the inventory pressure is not significant. Last week, the loss of the oil - based process widened slightly, and the profit of the coal - based process narrowed slightly. There is no planned new maintenance capacity this week, and the previously shut - down devices are restarting one after another. The PE capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise. Due to the gradual vacation and shutdown of product enterprises, the PE demand side is expected to remain weak. In terms of cost, the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran has shown new signs of tension, and the recent WTI and Brent oil prices have fluctuated strongly. The daily range of L2605 is expected to be around 6,660 - 6,820 [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of polyethylene is 6,775 yuan/ton, with a change of 54. The closing price of the January contract is 6,839 yuan/ton, with a change of 51. The closing price of the May contract is 6,775 yuan/ton, with a change of 54. The closing price of the September contract is 6,826 yuan/ton, with a change of 49. The trading volume is 282,260 lots, a decrease of 44,802 lots. The open interest is 512,614 lots, a decrease of 5,995 lots. The 1 - 5 spread is 64, a decrease of 3. The 5 - 9 spread is - 51, an increase of 5. The 9 - 1 spread is - 13, a decrease of 2. The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions is 525,960 lots, an increase of 5,941 lots. The sell order volume of the top 20 futures positions is 551,343 lots, a decrease of 5,479 lots. The net buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions is - 25,383 lots, an increase of 11,420 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 6,681.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.57 yuan/ton. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in East China is 6,774.42 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.14 yuan/ton. The basis is - 93.7, a decrease of 73.57 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 64.45 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.53 US dollars/barrel. The CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 597.88 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.75 US dollars/ton. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 676 US dollars/ton, with no change. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is 696 US dollars/ton, with no change [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide is 85.91%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film is 38.82%, a decrease of 3.25 percentage points. The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) pipes is 23.67%, a decrease of 4.16 percentage points. The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) agricultural film is 30.18%, a decrease of 4.38 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 17.61%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points. The 40 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 17.25%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene is 15.79%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for polyethylene is 15.8%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points [2] Industry News - From January 30th to February 5th, China's total polyethylene production was 712,400 tons, a 0.91% increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 85.91%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points from the previous period. From January 30th to February 5th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products decreased by 4.0% compared with the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural film decreased by 4.4% compared with the previous period, and the operating rate of PE packaging film decreased by 3.3% compared with the previous period. As of February 4th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 379,700 tons, a 17.55% increase from the previous week. As of February 6th, the social inventory of PE was 507,800 tons, a 4.70% increase from the previous week. From January 31st to February 6th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 2.46% month - on - month to 7,551 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 133 yuan/ton month - on - month to - 695 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 0.26% month - on - month to 6,512 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 51 yuan/ton month - on - month to 314 yuan/ton [2]