瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, after the previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of the precious metals market may decline. The US employment and inflation data this week will be the core variables. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, gold and silver may have a chance to make up for the rise [2]. - In the medium - to - long term, the actual impact of Wash's election as the Fed chairman on the interest rate policy path may be relatively limited. As market sentiment calms down, the precious metals market may return to the pricing framework dominated by macro and fundamentals. If the cooling trend of inflation and employment data continues, the logic of bottom - up layout in the precious metals market still holds. The support level of London gold is in the range of 4700 - 4800 US dollars per ounce, and the resistance level is in the range of 5200 - 5300 US dollars per ounce; the support level of London silver is in the range of 65 - 70 US dollars per ounce, and the resistance level is in the range of 90 - 95 US dollars per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 1121.220 yuan per gram, down 4.7; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 20284 yuan per kilogram, down 589.00 [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 156,910.00 hands, down 1849.00; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 8,976.00 hands, down 234.00 [2]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai gold main contract is 218,097.00, down 113210.00; the trading volume of the Shanghai silver main contract is 611,557.00, down 403698.00 [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold is 105072 kilograms, up 1020; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver is 323,368 kilograms, up 4822 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 1116.69, up 0.67; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 19,290.00, down 305.00 [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 4.53 yuan per gram, up 5.39; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 994.00 yuan per gram, up 284.00 [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR gold ETF holdings are 1079.66 tons, up 3.43; the SLV silver ETF holdings are 16,191.09 tons, unchanged [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 165604.00 contracts, down 39792.00; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CFTC are 25,877.00 contracts, up 2174.00 [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1302.80 tons, down 0.19; the total supply of silver in the year is 32,056.00 tons, up 482.00 [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1345.32 tons, up 79.57; the total demand for silver in the year is 35,716.00 tons, down 491.00 [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 96.86, down 0.75; the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is 1.87, down 0.01 [2]. - The VIX volatility index is 17.36, down 0.40; the CBOE gold volatility index is 32.84, down 1.12 [2]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price is 1.38, down 0.02; the gold - silver ratio is 62.71, down 3.31 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US in Oman ended, and the two sides reached a consensus on continuing the dialogue. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that this round of consultations was a "good start" [2]. - Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson said he was "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth is expected to help inflation fall back to the central bank's 2% target [2]. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in February was 57.3, the highest in six months. At the same time, the one - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest in a year [2]. - The gold reserves of the People's Bank of China have increased for 15 consecutive months. As of the end of January 2026, the gold reserve scale was 74.19 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 ounces [2]. - US President Trump signed an executive order threatening to impose tariffs on countries that purchase goods and services from sanctioned Iran. The executive order took effect on February 7 [2]. - The US announced a temporary trade agreement framework reached with India. India will cancel or reduce tariffs on US industrial products, as well as a variety of food and agricultural products. The US will reduce the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Follow - February 10, 21:30, US January retail sales data [2]. - February 11, 21:30, US January non - farm payrolls data [2]. - February 13, 21:30, US January CPI data [2].