豆类日报：马棕报告影响有限豆类油脂维持震荡-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On February 10, the soybean market showed a pattern of external strength and internal stability, with a pre - holiday quiet atmosphere. The international market saw a slight increase in US soybean futures as traders adjusted their positions before the USDA supply - demand report, but the expected record - high Brazilian harvest was a major pressure on price rebounds. In the domestic market, as the Spring Festival approached, oil mills gradually shut down, and spot trading became sluggish. Although the cost of imported soybeans supported the price of soybean meal, high inventories of soybeans and soybean meal at domestic ports and potential supply pressure after the festival led to a cautious market outlook, and the soybean meal futures price remained in a volatile pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, the soybean market is under the dual pressure of South American bumper harvests and high domestic inventories, and the short - term volatile pattern is difficult to change [3][4]. - The oil market overall showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The MPOB data showed that the January inventory of Malaysian palm oil decreased more than expected, but the positive impact was quickly digested by the market. Coupled with the increasing risk - aversion sentiment of funds before the holiday, the palm oil futures price fell again. Although the seasonal production decline of Malaysian palm oil in January was significant and exports increased due to improved cost - effectiveness, the market had fully priced in the inventory decline expectation, and the production and inventory in January remained at a high level. There is still pressure on the rebound of BMD crude palm oil futures. India has restocking demand before Ramadan, so Malaysian palm oil exports are expected to continue to increase. The domestic oil market has no obvious positive driving factors, and trading is light before the holiday. The inventory of the three major edible oils decreased slightly last week, and the market has basically digested the impact of Canadian canola purchases. Before the holiday, the market is highly watchful, and with weakening fund support, the oil market has shifted to a volatile pattern [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - USDA Supply - Demand Report: The US Department of Agriculture will release the supply - demand report early on Wednesday Beijing time. The market will closely watch whether US soybean export data will be increased. US soybean crushing demand remains strong, with the crushing volume as of the end of December 7.5% higher than the same period in the 2024/25 season, and the USDA predicts an annual growth of 5%. Analysts surveyed by Wall Street predict the US soybean ending inventory to be 348 million bushels. In terms of global supply - demand balance, Brazil's soybean harvest progress is one of the fastest in recent years, with 40% of the harvest in Mato Grosso completed. Analysts predict that the Brazilian soybean production will be increased by 1.2 million tons to 179.2 million tons this month, and there is a possibility of the production exceeding 180 million tons. In Argentina, due to the January drought, the soybean growth situation has declined, but since only a relatively small proportion of soybeans are in the pod - setting stage, there is still time to reverse the situation. The USDA may maintain the production forecast of 48.5 million tons [7]. - US Soybean Exports to China: According to the USDA's weekly export inspection report, last week, the quantity of US soybeans exported to China increased by 1% compared with the previous week and 35% compared with the same period last year. As of the week of February 5, 2026, the US shipped 747,198 tons of soybeans to China (Mainland), compared with 740,004 tons in the previous week, 554,661 tons in the same period in 2025, and 814,103 tons in the same period in 2024. The proportion of US soybean export inspections to China in the total that week was 68.8%, up from 56.5% last week and 67.8% two weeks ago [8]. - Soybean Pressing Demand: In the 2025/26 season, the total soybean pressing volume of the three major soybean - exporting countries (Brazil, the US, and Argentina) will reach a new high of 366.4 million tons, a 16.1% increase from 315.6 million tons in the 2022/23 season. In the past twenty years, Brazil's soybean pressing volume has almost doubled. The USDA's January supply - demand report shows that the global ending inventory/usage ratio of soybean oil in the 2025/26 season is expected to be only 8.6%. The US soybean pressing volume in December was 230 million bushels, higher than 221 million bushels in November and 218 million bushels in December 2024. It is expected that the US soybean pressing volume in the 2025/26 season will easily reach the USDA's forecast of 2.57 billion bushels, setting a new record [9]. - US Soybean Pressing Profit: As of the week of February 6, 2026, the US soybean pressing profit was $2.99 per bushel, a 4.18% increase compared with the previous week. In 2025, the average pressing profit was $2.46 per bushel, higher than $2.44 per bushel in 2024. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at Illinois soybean processing plants was $307.39 per short ton, equivalent to $7.15 per bushel. The truck - delivery price of crude soybean oil in Iowa was 54.82 cents per pound, equivalent to $6.47 per bushel. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.88, up from $10.65 per bushel a week ago [10]. - Brazilian Soybean Harvest Progress: As of February 6, the soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso in the 2025/26 season reached 39.61% of the planted area, 14.64% higher than a week ago and 11.03% higher than the same period last year. Among different regions in Mato Grosso, the central - northern region led with a 58.63% harvest rate, followed by the northern region (50.72%), the western region (49.74%), and the north - western region (44.19%). The harvest rates in the central - southern, north - eastern, and south - eastern regions were 29.63%, 23.02%, and 19.71% respectively. As of February 5, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 16%, up from 10% last week and 15% in the same period last year. AgRural predicted that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 181 million tons, an increase of about 600,000 tons from the December 22 prediction and a 5.54% increase from the 2024/25 season [11][12]. - Malaysian Palm Oil Supply - Demand Report: On February 10, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board released the January supply - demand monthly report. The core data were better than market expectations. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of January decreased by 7.72% month - on - month to 2.815 million tons, significantly lower than the analysts' estimate of 2.91 million tons. The crude palm oil production decreased by 13.78% from the previous month to 1.577 million tons, also lower than the expected 1.61 million tons. The export volume increased by 11.44% month - on - month to 1.484 million tons, higher than the estimated 1.42 million tons. The greater - than - expected decline in production and strong export growth led to a larger inventory decline, reflecting the dual benefits of supply contraction and demand improvement [13]. 2. Spot Market Prices | Variety | Grade/Indicator | Price (Yuan/ton) | Change from the Previous Day (Yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybeans (Dalian) | Imported Second - Class | 3950 | 0 | | Soybeans (Average Price) | —— | 4072 | 0 | | Soybean Meal (Zhangjiagang) | ≥43% | 3060 | - 20 | | Soybean Meal (Average Price) | —— | 3152 | - 2 | | Soybean Oil (Zhangjiagang) | Fourth - Grade | 8560 | - 80 | | Soybean Oil (Average Price) | —— | 8575 | - 26 | | Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 24 - Degree | 9050 | - 10 | | Palm Oil (Average Price) | —— | 9076 | - 10 | | Rapeseed Oil (Zhangjiagang) | Imported Fourth - Grade | 9970 | + 30 | | Rapeseed Oil (Average Price) | —— | 10076 | + 30 | [14] 3. Oil Mill Pressing Profits | Location | Soybeans | Soybean Meal | Soybean Oil | Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jiang (Domestic) | 4100 | 3320 | 8630 | - 4.00 | | (Domestic) | 4160 | 3180 | 8440 | - 210.90 | | (Imported) | 3950 | 3180 | 8440 | 19.90 | | (Domestic) | 4260 | 3160 | 8420 | - 330.60 | | (Imported) | 3940 | 3160 | 8420 | 10.40 | | (Domestic) | 4400 | 3080 | 8470 | - 526.00 | | (Imported) | 3920 | 3080 | 8470 | - 22.90 | | Port (Imported) | 3920 | 3060 | 8560 | - 22.90 | | (Imported) | 3950 | 3060 | 8590 | - 52.90 | | (Imported) | 3920 | 3050 | 8470 | - 22.90 | | (Imported) | 3920 | 3080 | 8470 | - 22.90 | | (Imported) | 3950 | 3080 | 8290 | - 52.90 | | (Imported) | 3920 | 3100 | 8490 | - 52.90 | [16] 4. Related Charts - The report mentions several charts including soybean port inventory, soybean disk pressing profit, soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, but no specific chart - related analysis content is provided [17][19][21][23][25][27]