钢材&铁矿石日报：产业逻辑主导，钢矿偏弱运行-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated downward with a daily decline of 0.55%, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. Currently, rebar supply has contracted, and demand has also weakened. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar remain weak. The steel price in the off - season continues to be under pressure, and the relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated weakly with a daily decline of 0.65%, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coil has weakened, and there is still supply pressure under the situation of high production and high inventory. The fundamentals are weak, and the price continues to be under pressure and run weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated with a daily decline of 0%, showing a decrease in volume and stable open interest. Currently, the overseas ore supply has contracted but its sustainability is questionable, and the demand continues to run weakly. The fundamentals of iron ore are still weak. Under the guidance of the real - world logic, it is expected that the ore price will continue to be under pressure and run weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the total social logistics volume in China exceeded 368 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The logistics demand scale steadily expanded, the structure was continuously optimized, and the logistics efficiency continued to improve. The ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP dropped to the lowest level in history, and the supporting effect of logistics on economic development continued to strengthen [7]. - As of February 10, 16 car companies announced their production and sales data for January. In terms of sales, these 16 car companies achieved a total vehicle sales volume of 1.6395 million units in January. SAIC Group ranked first with 327,400 units in sales. Only Geely and Zhongtong achieved month - on - month growth. Year - on - year, 12 car companies' sales increased, with Qianli Technology having the highest increase of 162.79%, followed by Seres with a 104.85% increase, and Zhongtong Bus with a 35.72% increase [8]. - As of February 10, 34 steel enterprises have passed the acceptance of the ultimate energy - efficiency benchmark, and on this day, Luzhou Xinyang Vanadium - Titanium Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. passed the acceptance and was publicly announced [9]. 2. Spot Market - Rebar (HRB400E, 20mm): The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,190, 3,150, and 3,304 respectively, with no change compared to the previous day [10]. - Hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm): The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,240, 3,140, and 3,280 respectively. The national average price decreased by 1 compared to the previous day [10]. - Tangshan billet (Q235): The spot price is 2,910, with no change compared to the previous day [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm): The spot price is 2,160, with no change compared to the previous day [10]. - PB powder (Shandong port): The price is 758, an increase of 1 compared to the previous day [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis): The price is 767, with no change compared to the previous day [10]. - Ocean freight: The freight from Australia is 8.48, an increase of 0.03 compared to the previous day; the freight from Brazil is 23.16, a decrease of 0.29 compared to the previous day [10]. - SGX swap (current month): The price is 100.25, an increase of 0.67 compared to the previous day [10]. - Iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR): The price is 100.20, an increase of 1.50 compared to the previous day [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract is 3,052, a decline of 0.55%. The highest price is 3,072, the lowest price is 3,047, the trading volume is 528,327, a decrease of 137,212 compared to the previous day, the open interest is 2,065,537, an increase of 60,036 compared to the previous day [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract is 3,220, a decline of 0.65%. The highest price is 3,245, the lowest price is 3,218, the trading volume is 336,623, a decrease of 12,163 compared to the previous day, the open interest is 1,542,845, an increase of 43,035 compared to the previous day [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract is 761.5, with no change. The highest price is 767.0, the lowest price is 761.0, the trading volume is 143,284, a decrease of 26,396 compared to the previous day, the open interest is 513,940, an increase of 556 compared to the previous day [14]. 4. Related Charts - Steel Inventory: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including historical data from multiple years [16][22]. - Iron Ore Inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory and its seasonal changes, as well as the inventory of 247 steel mills and domestic mine iron concentrate powder [22]. - Steel Mill Production: There are charts showing the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and the proportion of profitable steel mills of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profitability of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills [31]. 5. Market Outlook - Rebar: Both supply and demand are seasonally weak, and inventory continues to accumulate. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 81,500 tons compared to the previous week, and the supply has contracted. However, the inventory level is significantly higher than the same period last lunar year, and the pressure relief is limited. The demand for rebar continues to be seasonally weak, and both the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency daily transactions have significantly shrunk, being at the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. Considering that there is no improvement in downstream industries, the weak demand pattern is difficult to change, which continues to drag down the steel price. The relative positive factor is the post - holiday policy expectation. It is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [39]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has not changed much, and the inventory has increased again. The production of plate mills has stabilized, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly by 50 tons compared to the previous week, remaining at a relatively high level, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure remains. The demand for hot - rolled coil has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased by 58,700 tons compared to the previous week, and the high - frequency daily transactions continue to run at a low level. The relative positive factor is that the production of downstream cold - rolled products remains at a high level, which supports the demand for hot - rolled coil, but attention should be paid to the accumulation of contradictions in cold - rolled products themselves. In addition, the external demand for exports is average, and there are concerns about the demand for hot - rolled coil. It is expected to continue to be under pressure and run weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills has stabilized, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased slightly. The average daily molten iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills last week both increased. However, considering that the profitability of steel mills has not improved and the contradictions in the steel market have accumulated, the demand improvement is limited, and the positive effect is not strong. At the same time, the arrival volume at domestic ports has declined again, and the shipments of miners have decreased significantly due to hurricane disturbances. The overseas ore supply has shrunk in the short term, and the domestic ore supply has seasonally shrunk. However, the supply pressure of ore is not significantly relieved under the high - inventory situation. It is expected that the ore price will continue to be under pressure and run weakly, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [40].