有色日报：有色震荡走弱-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - Copper: Today, copper prices fluctuated and weakened, with a slight decline in the open interest of Shanghai copper. At the macro level, as the Chinese Spring Festival holiday approaches, market trading activity decreases, and market volatility also declines. At the industrial level, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased on Monday, and downstream buyers showed a strong willingness to replenish inventory at low prices. In the short term, attention can be paid to the trend of silver, as its short - term trend may affect copper prices [7]. - Aluminum: Today, aluminum prices fluctuated and weakened, with a slight decline in the open interest of Shanghai aluminum. At the macro level, as the Chinese Spring Festival holiday approaches, market trading activity decreases, and market volatility also declines. At the industrial level, there is a seasonal inventory build - up of domestic electrolytic aluminum. Technically, after a sharp decline at the beginning of the month, aluminum prices have stabilized, and the amplitude has significantly narrowed, with weak short - term drivers [8]. - Nickel: Today, nickel prices fluctuated downward, with a slight decline in the open interest of Shanghai nickel. From the disk perspective, non - ferrous metals generally weakened, and nickel prices followed suit. At the industrial level, short - term drivers are weak, and nickel ore port inventories are seasonally decreasing from a high level compared to previous years. Technically, the overall price is oscillating between 130,000 and 140,000 yuan, with continuously decreasing volatility. Before the holiday, capital drivers are weak, and it follows the non - ferrous metal sector [9]. Industry Dynamics Copper - On February 10, SMM reported that on that day, spot goods holders showed a willingness to dump goods, while downstream consumption weakened as some enterprises entered the holiday and their备货 was basically completed, resulting in a slight decline in spot premiums and discounts. In terms of supply, previously locked - in imported goods have been arriving at ports one after another, and the market circulation volume has gradually increased. However, it is worth noting that most holders of deliverable brands choose to hold back goods to wait for delivery in order to obtain the monthly spread, resulting in a tightening of deliverable goods in the market. At the same time, buyers' willingness to take delivery is low, and the market presents a stalemate of weak supply and demand, which is expected to suppress spot trading activity and premium and discount performance [11]. - On February 9, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 341,200 tons, a decrease of 11,100 tons compared to February 5 [12]. Aluminum - On February 10, SMM reported that in terms of aluminum ingot inventory, the inventory of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas increased by 4,500 tons compared to the previous day, and the main sources of inventory build - up were Guangdong and Wuxi. In the short term, high aluminum prices may continue to suppress terminal demand. Coupled with the impact of the Spring Festival holiday for downstream enterprises, aluminum ingots still face the risk of inventory build - up, and spot premiums and discounts are expected to continue to be under pressure [13]. - On February 9, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 875,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons compared to February 5 [14]. Nickel - On February 10, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 133,400 - 144,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 138,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 9,500 - 10,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 9,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 400 - 400 yuan/ton [15]. Related Charts Copper - The report includes charts such as copper spot premiums and discounts, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory [16][18][19]. Aluminum - The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), aluminum rod inventory, and Shanghai - London ratio [29][31][33]. Nickel - The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [41][43][45].