银河期货油脂日报-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the holiday, funds may take profits, sentiment is expected to decline, and there is a need for a correction in the oil market. It is advisable to consider short - selling at high levels or waiting for a correction to buy at low levels. The overall market will maintain a wide - range oscillation [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on February 10, 2026, were 8098, 8940, and 9096 respectively, with price drops of 16, 74, and 41. The spot prices and basis of these oils in different regions were also presented. For example, the spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8478, and the basis was 480 with a decline of 20 [2] - Monthly Spread: The 5 - 9 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 50, 28, and 21 respectively, with changes of 0, 2, and - 13 [2] - Cross - Variety Spreads: The 05 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were - 842, 998, and 156 respectively, with changes of 58, - 25, and 33. The oil - meal ratio was 2.96 with a decline of 0.01 [2] - Import Profits: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for the March shipment was 1118, with a negative profit of 301. The FOB price of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for the March shipment was 1062, with a negative profit of 1401 [2] - Weekly Commercial Inventory: In the 5th week of 2026, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 96.0, 72.7, and 23.7 million tons respectively, compared with 94.7, 70.1, and 24.2 million tons in the previous week, and 89.4, 44.3, and 64.0 million tons in the same period last year [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: In January 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1,577,454 tons, a 13.78% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1,484,267 tons, an 11.44% month - on - month increase; and inventory was 2,815,493 tons, a 7.72% month - on - month decrease [4] - Domestic Market - Palm Oil: As of February 6, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 72.67 million tons, a 3.61% increase from the previous week. The origin's quotes were stable with a slight decline, and the import profit was inverted by about 200. The basis was stable with a weak trend, and the spot market trading volume increased slightly. Short - term palm oil will maintain a wide - range oscillation [4] - Domestic Market - Soybean Oil: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.484 million tons, and the operating rate was 68.33%. As of February 6, 2026, the national soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.1552 million tons, a 0.78% increase from the previous week. The soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, but it is still at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The basis is relatively stable. The overall soybean oil inventory may slightly decrease, but the supply is sufficient [4][6] - Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 10,000 tons, and the operating rate was 2.67%. As of February 6, 2026, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 237,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil FOB quote was stable at around 1030 US dollars, and the import profit inversion increased to about - 1300. Recently, China has purchased a large amount of Canadian rapeseed, which may bring supply pressure in the far - term. However, in the short - term, the rapeseed oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the actual available inventory is tight, which supports the near - term basis [6] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral Strategy: Near the holiday, funds may take profits, and the oil market has a correction demand. Consider short - selling at high levels or waiting for a correction to buy at low levels. The overall market will maintain a wide - range oscillation [8] - Arbitrage Strategy: Consider reverse arbitrage for Y59 at high levels [9] - Options Strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [13][14][17][21]