银河期货液化气日报-20260210

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Zhao Ruochen [4] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03151390 [4] - Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0023496 [4] - Email: zhaoruochen_qh@chinastock.com.cn [4] Group 2: Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market - Adani Group is facing potential sanctions as the US seeks information after a media report alleged the company imported Iranian oil products into India [3] - Cosmo Oil's refinery in Sakai, Osaka, with a daily crude distillation capacity of 100,000 barrels, had an unplanned shutdown on February 9, and the restart time is uncertain [3] - The US government advised US - flagged vessels to stay away from Iranian waters when passing through the Strait of Hormuz due to recent harassment of a ship in the area and rising tensions between Washington and Tehran [3] Group 3: Spot Market Overview Shandong Region - The estimated price of civil LPG in Shandong is 4,490 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The market continued to rise slightly due to reduced external resource inflows and no inventory pressure on refineries [5] - The Shandong ether - after carbon - four market showed an upward trend, with good trading. Low supply and downstream demand supported the market, and it is expected to continue a steady and slightly rising trend tomorrow [5] East China Region - The mainstream transaction price of civil LPG in East China is 4,475 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market is stable, and it is expected to remain so in the short term as sellers' inventory is controllable and they focus on stable shipments [5] South China Region - The average transaction price of domestic LPG in South China is 4,750 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day, and the average price of imported LPG is 4,865 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan/ton decrease. The market is stable with some price drops. It is expected to be range - bound before the Spring Festival due to factors like approaching cost, weak demand, and limited transactions [5] North China Region - The benchmark price of civil LPG in North China is 4,297 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The market had local price drops, and low - price transactions were good as downstream buyers made purchases [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - LPG trading is currently influenced by geopolitical factors, with market sentiment amplifying price fluctuations. The international LPG supply is tight, and winter demand is strong, providing support. However, the domestic market is becoming more relaxed, with sufficient refinery supply and low chemical demand creating resistance [7] - With the Iran negotiation yet to be finalized, there are still tail risks. The domestic LPG market is expected to be volatile in the short term and face pressure in the long term [7]