申万金工ETF组合202602

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on constructing multiple ETF portfolios, including macro industry, macro + momentum industry, core - satellite, and trinity style rotation portfolios, aiming to find better investment opportunities by combining macro factors, momentum factors, and style rotation [4][5]. - Different industries have different sensitivities to economic, liquidity, and credit factors. For example, traditional cycle industries are sensitive to the economy, TMT is sensitive to liquidity, and consumption is sensitive to credit [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 ETF Portfolio Construction Methods 3.1.1 Based on Macro Method - Calculate macro - sensitivities of broad - based, industry - themed, and Smart Beta ETFs based on economic, liquidity, and credit variables. Combine with momentum indicators for complementary analysis [4]. - Traditional cycle industries are suitable for economic up - periods, TMT for weak - economy but loose - liquidity periods, and consumption for credit - expansion periods. State - owned enterprises and ESG - related themes have low sensitivities to liquidity and credit [4]. - Construct three ETF portfolios (macro industry, macro + momentum industry, and core - satellite) and adjust positions monthly [4]. 3.1.2 Trinity Style Rotation ETF Portfolio Construction - Build a medium - to - long - term style rotation model centered on macro - liquidity, and compare it with the CSI 300 index [5]. - Construct three types of models (growth/value rotation, market - cap, and quality models) by screening macro, fundamental, and market - sentiment factors. The model has 8 style - preference results [5]. - Select ETFs with high exposure to the target style, control industry exposure, and set allocation limits to get the final ETF allocation model [5]. 3.2 Macro Industry Portfolio - Select industry - themed ETFs with over 1 - year establishment and over 200 million current scale. Calculate sensitivity scores of economic, liquidity, and credit factors monthly, adjust scores according to the latest indicators, and sum them up. If liquidity and credit deviate significantly, remove the liquidity score. Select the top 6 industry - themed indices and corresponding largest - scale ETFs for equal - weight allocation [6][7]. - Currently, with falling economic leading indicators, loose liquidity, and tightened credit, the portfolio is biased towards TMT and consumption. The February positions are shown in Table 1 [8]. - The portfolio has large fluctuations and outperformed the benchmark significantly in January [11]. 3.3 Macro + Momentum Industry Portfolio - Combine macro and momentum methods to address the left - side nature of macro - based strategies (low win - rate but high odds). Use clustering to group industry - themed indices and select the highest - rising product in each group in the past 6 months for equal - weight allocation [12]. - The momentum - selected industries still have a high proportion of cyclical industries. The February positions are shown in Table 3 [16]. - The portfolio has performed well this year and outperformed the CSI 300 significantly in January [17]. 3.4 Core - Satellite Portfolio - Design a "core - satellite" portfolio with the CSI 300 as the core to address the high volatility and rapid industry rotation of industry - themed ETFs [19]. - Calculate macro - sensitivities for broad - based, industry - themed, and Smart Beta ETFs, construct three stock portfolios, and weight them at 50%, 30%, and 20% respectively [19]. - The current allocation of broad - based ETFs is biased towards the Sci - tech Innovation Board and the ChiNext. The portfolio has performed stably, outperforming the benchmark in most months except December, and had significant excess returns in January 2026 [23][24]. 3.5 Trinity Style Rotation ETF Portfolio - The model currently favors the small - cap growth - high - quality segment. The factor exposures and historical performance are shown in Table 7 [26]. - The February positions are shown in Table 9 [31]. - The portfolio has achieved certain excess returns, especially in some months such as August 2025 and January 2026 [29].