瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will experience a short - term adjustment with a bullish trend, and investors should pay attention to the 400,000 yuan mark [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 382,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,180 yuan; the closing price of the March - April contract of Shanghai tin is down 770 yuan to - 610 yuan; LME 3 - month tin is at 49,815 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2,660 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai tin is 32,207 lots, a decrease of 1,418 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 5,664 lots, a decrease of 141 lots; LME tin total inventory is 7,030 tons, a decrease of 55 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 8,750 tons, a decrease of 1,718 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 265 tons, a decrease of 50 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of tin are 6,385 tons, an increase of 48 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 385,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 12,200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 390,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 17,260 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 10,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9,980 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 156 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 359,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 17,200 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 363,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 17,200 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, an increase of 323.25 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 244,890 yuan/ton, an increase of 7,570 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, an increase of 138,700 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - The General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee stated that building a modern socialist country depends on scientific and technological self - reliance and self - strength. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that even if Wash becomes the Fed Chairman, the balance - sheet reduction will not be carried out rapidly, and the decision may take up to a year for evaluation [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the macro level, the emphasis on scientific and technological self - reliance and self - strength and the cautious attitude of the Fed towards balance - sheet reduction are noted. On the fundamental level, the supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the first quarter, with a slight rebound in processing fees, indicating a relief of the supply shortage. However, the raw material inventory of smelting enterprises is still low, and production is limited, but there is pressure for output to rebound after the Chinese New Year. The import pressure is increasing as Indonesian tin exports rise. On the demand side, the development of the AI field will drive the demand for solder, and the downstream purchasing atmosphere has improved, with a significant decline in inventory and a rebound in the spot premium. Technically, the position is stable and the price is rising, with a bullish sentiment [3]