MTM(SH:688029) HTSC·2026-02-10 10:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 97.65 [1][5] Core Insights - The company, Nanwei Medical, is a leading domestic player in endoscopic medical consumables, with significant growth in international markets, particularly in developed countries. From 2014 to 2024, overseas revenue is expected to grow 12.6 times, with nearly 60% of revenue coming from international markets in 9M25. The company is well-positioned to benefit from a stable domestic policy environment regarding centralized procurement [1][16] - The report highlights the company's strong global expansion capabilities, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% in overseas revenue from 2013 to 2024. The direct sales model has significantly increased its contribution to revenue, indicating a robust international market presence [2][4] Summary by Sections Overseas Market Performance - The company has achieved a CAGR of 30% in overseas revenue from 2013 to 2024, with 9M25 overseas revenue reaching RMB 1.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42%. The Americas, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific regions have shown growth rates of 20%, 73%, and 32% respectively, with overseas revenue accounting for 59% of total revenue [2][16] - The global endoscopic market is projected to grow from approximately USD 6 billion in 2023 to USD 7.4 billion by 2026, with the company currently holding less than 6% market share, indicating significant growth potential [2][33] Domestic Market Dynamics - The impact of centralized procurement on domestic revenue is expected to diminish, with the company winning bids in key regions without further price declines. The government has emphasized quality over price in procurement policies, which stabilizes expectations for future revenue [3][18] - Domestic revenue for 9M25 was RMB 980 million, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.7% due to procurement pressures, but the company anticipates a gradual recovery as overseas revenue continues to grow [3][24] Differentiation from Market Views - The report argues that concerns regarding the impact of centralized procurement are manageable and decreasing. The company’s overseas revenue share is expected to continue rising, while the share of non-procurement products in domestic revenue is likely to decline [4][19] - The market has not fully recognized the company's exceptional global business capabilities, with overseas revenue growth and contribution metrics indicating that Nanwei Medical is among the top tier of domestic medical device companies [4][19] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 600 million, RMB 710 million, and RMB 840 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 3.22, RMB 3.76, and RMB 4.49. The valuation is set at 26x PE for 2026, leading to a target price of RMB 97.65 [5][9]