白糖日报-20260210

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to whether the support at the previous low is effective. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is also expected to oscillate at the bottom. After the Zhengzhou sugar price slightly rises to near the upper edge of the previous range, it is expected to face significant upward pressure. For arbitrage and options, the report suggests waiting and seeing [9][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures Market: The closing prices of SR09, SR01, and SR05 are 5,288, 5,395, and 5,278 respectively, with increases of 14, 16, and 17, and increases of 0.27%, 0.30%, and 0.32%. The trading volumes are 26,559, 726, and 257,845, with changes of -748, -340, and 4421. The open interests are 123,081, 4,146, and 458,435, with increases of 2021, 519, and 4522 [3] - Spot Market: The spot prices in different regions vary. For example, the price in Liuzhou is 5370 yuan/ton with an increase of 10, and the price in Kunming is 5175 yuan/ton with an increase of 20. The basis differences also vary in different regions [3] - Inter - month Spread: The SR05 - SR01 spread is -117 with an increase of 1, the SR09 - SR05 spread is 10 with a decrease of 3, and the SR09 - SR01 spread is -107 with a decrease of 2 [3] - Import Profit: For Brazilian imports, the in - quota price is 3897, the out - of - quota price is 4946. For Thai imports, the in - quota price is 3888, the out - of - quota price is 4933 [3] 3.2 Market Judgment - Important Information: In the first week of February, Brazil exported 76.24 tons of sugar and molasses, a year - on - year increase of 34.28%. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' prediction of China's sugar supply and demand situation remains the same as last month. As of January 31, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong decreased by 34.9%, 17.7%, and 28.9% year - on - year respectively. The global market remains in a situation of loose supply and demand [5] - Logical Analysis: Internationally, Brazil's sugar influence is declining, while India's sugar production may increase more than expected, but some institutions predict a decrease in sugar production and an increase in consumption in the 2026/27 season, so international sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Domestically, although there is pressure on the supply side due to increased production, the increase in international sugar prices and the easing of domestic macro - sentiment are expected to relieve the pressure on domestic sugar prices, and domestic sugar prices are also expected to oscillate at the bottom [9] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, pay attention to the support of international and domestic sugar prices at the previous lows. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11][12] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou's spot price and the price difference with Kunming, and various futures basis and spreads [14][18][22]