棉花、棉纱日报-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton fundamentals remain strong with an upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 and the upcoming textile projects in Xinjiang are factors influencing the market [6]. - In the short - term, both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range. The trading strategies suggest building long positions on dips for the unilateral trade, and adopting a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Futures Market: The CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts of cotton all decreased by 70, while the CY05 and CY09 contracts of cotton yarn decreased by 45 and 25 respectively. The CY01 contract had no trading volume. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the open interest of the CF01 contract increased by 84, and that of the CF05 contract decreased by 270 [2]. - Spot Market: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,967 yuan/ton, down 45; the CY IndexC32S price was 21,455 yuan, unchanged. The prices of other varieties such as Cot A, FCY IndexC33S, etc., also had corresponding changes [2]. - Spreads: In the cotton and cotton yarn markets, there were changes in cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 530, unchanged; the CY05 - CF05 spread was 5,750, up 25 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of January 22, 2026, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 cotton was 55.5%. As of February 6, the planting was 88.1% complete, up 9.5 percentage points month - on - month, 0.7 percentage points faster year - on - year, and 3.6 percentage points slower than the three - year average. The planting progress in Mato Grosso and Bahia is in the middle - late stage [4]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.9894 million tons, accounting for 98.7% of the estimated annual US cotton output, 6% slower year - on - year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 98.6%, down 5% year - on - year; that of Pima cotton was 99.5%, 17% slower year - on - year. The weekly deliverable ratio was 78.1%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.8%, 1.2 percentage points higher year - on - year [5]. Trading Logic - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2025 was 38.87 million mu. It is expected to decrease by 2.66 million mu to 36.21 million mu in 2026, a reduction of 7%. Some large - scale planters have received relevant notices. Several large textile projects are expected to be launched in Xinjiang this year, which is beneficial to cotton consumption [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected that US cotton will trade in a range in the short - term, and Zhengzhou cotton will also trade in a range. It is advisable to build long positions on dips. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has become quiet, with more spinning mills on holiday. Yarn prices are generally stable, and some spinning mills have slightly increased their quotes. - The full - cotton grey fabric market is getting more festive, and the market remains sluggish. Traders are gradually returning home. Some weaving mills report that post - holiday orders are fewer than in previous years. Weaving mills continue to stop production and reduce loads, and there is expected to be no significant change before the Spring Festival [9]. 3.3 Options - Option Contract Information: On January 19, 2026, for options such as CF605C14600.CZC, CF605C14200.CZC, and CF605P13800.CZC, the closing prices decreased by 16.9%, 17.7%, and 34.1% respectively, and the implied volatilities were 13.3%, 11.3%, and 11.2% respectively [11]. - Volatility and Volume PCR: The 60 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.8667, and the volume PCR was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today [11][12]. - Option Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13].